Pakistan with or without Musharaf
Michael Krepon
27 November 2007

http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=82955

Pakistan's sorrows continue to mount. The "good news" talking points of recent Pakistani visitors to Washington linked to the government -- a vibrant media, a vigorous judiciary, a rising stock market, and an impending partnership between General Pervez Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto -- have turned to dust with Musharraf's declaration of emergency rule. Greater difficulties lie ahead, with suicide bombers awaiting opportunities to make more mayhem.

The slender hope of a transitional partnership between Musharraf and the political center has floundered. The die is increasingly cast between Musharraf and his narrowing circle of backers and the large ranks of those who believe his service to Pakistan is effectively over.

The Bush administration and a few highly respected voices in Pakistan remain unwilling to accept what they believe to be a stark choice between pre- and post-Musharraf Pakistan. The best reason for caution is the fear of the unknown, which may be worse than what we know too well. But the accumulation of political events may well have passed the point where familiar Pakistani and U.S. techniques of political management and manipulation can succeed. These techniques have, after all, led to the current impasse; their continued employment could now accelerate the very trends that are most worrisome within the country, even if they are sufficient to keep Musharraf in power.

What would be worse for Pakistan and the United States: If Musharraf stays or if he goes? With great hesitation, I have come to the following conclusions: First, the political trends lines within Pakistan are likely to grow worse the longer Musharraf remains in any position of leadership. Second, the corporate interests of the Pakistan Army with respect to counter-terrorism, control of the country's nuclear assets, and in handling troubled ties with Washington are unlikely to change appreciably if or when Musharraf goes. And third, the longer Musharraf stays, the greater the difficulties Washington can expect on all three fronts.

The dilemmas associated with these conclusions are unavoidable after the wreckage of Musharraf's endgame to assure himself another term as President. Pakistan's domestic politics have become so abnormal that modest remedies now seem insufficient while near-term solutions appear improbable. Among the latter is the goal of free and fair national elections in January -- a timeframe that virtually prohibits sufficient political normalization to make the results anything but ephemeral. Another rigged national election would add even more salt to Pakistan's open wounds.

US insistence on prompt national elections seems to be predicated on the false, but longstanding assumption that Musharraf remains key to holding the country together in the face of growing centrifugal tendencies. Even worse dilemmas are likely to result by staying the present course of demanding quick national elections and brokering a transition strategy that includes Musharraf.

Instead, I respectfully submit that a new transition strategy needs to be considered, one that centres on a truly impartial caretaker government to prepare for national elections that take place in a timeframe whereby all political leaders in exile can return home, political activity can be carried out on a level playing field, and in which an independent judiciary and national election commission can be reconstituted to monitor the results.

This conclusion is based on the analysis that the longer Musharraf wears either of his two hats, the longer it will take for Pakistan to hold sufficiently credible elections upon which a semblance of political normalcy can resume. Being army chief is an important, full-time job. Pakistan has not had a full-time chief for the past eight years. The sooner Musharraf hands this baton to his vice-chief of army staff, General Ashfaq Kiyani, the better.

I believe that by declaring a state of emergency to hold onto his second hat as President, Musharraf has forfeited this post, as well. Too much mayhem and too many broken promises have occurred on Musharraf's watch for him to be a successful transitional figure, let alone a stabilizing force in the normalization of Pakistani politics.

With or without Musharraf, the corporate interests of the Pakistan Army remain the same: The nation's well-being now depends on countering internal threats that are carving out autonomous zones in the tribal belt along the Afghan border, in portions of the Northwest Frontier Province, and in mosque complexes in Pakistan's major cities. Suicide attacks have been carried out against military and political leaders, army commando, air force, and navy complexes. Islamic extremism has devolved from a device used to kick the Soviet Union out of Afghanistan and to inflict pain on India a clear threat to Pakistan's future.

Whether Musharraf stays or goes, this fact of life will remain unchanged. It is reasonable to assume that the senior officer corps that Musharraf has hand-picked shares his basic outlook on matters of crucial importance to the state. They are also likely to share his limitations in dealing with internal security problems, as well as his limitations in partnering with the United States to counter the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

The vice-chief of army staff and the corps commanders Musharraf has carefully chosen surely understand the strategic imperative of trying to maintain working ties with Washington. The loss of this relationship would be catastrophic to both partners. They should also understand the strategic necessity of keeping Pakistan's relations with India on an even keel while the Afghan border is so volatile.

No national assets mean more to Pakistan's military leaders than the country's holdings of nuclear weapons. A new system of security has been instituted after the embarrassments of A Q Khan's dealings became known. This system is now being stressed. Weapons that remain in central storage locations are likely to be as safe as anything of value within the country -- if the security system is sufficiently robust to stop insider threats. Weapons that have been removed from central storage will necessarily have less protection.

The United States and Pakistan have been working together to help increase security and to promote best practices regarding nuclear risk-reduction measures. In a small way, the Stimson Center has tried to help in this effort. Stimson has been honored to host eight visiting fellows from the Strategic Plans Division at Joint Staff Headquarters and two visiting fellows from the Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority. Our visiting fellows have been conscientious, hard working, and very focused on explaining their mission to reduce nuclear dangers and to prevent acts of nuclear terrorism. There is still much work to be done, and this work becomes harder the longer the crisis of political legitimacy in Pakistan continues.

Personalities change, but national interests do not -- at least unless and until Pakistan passes the point of no return in its dealings with the United States. That point has not yet been reached -- but it comes closer the longer the Bush administration equates Pakistan's future with Musharraf's hold on power.

The writer is co-founder of Henry L Stimson Centre, an independent think tank in Washington

Hamlet, Macbeth or Don Quixote?
Anjum Niaz
The News, November 27, 2007

Tuesday proved bloody as Karachi police, armed with batons and clear shields, battered protester. Officers arrested 180 journalists protesting the media's curb, several were bloody and battered others were detained. Two journalists were reported to be in critical condition.

Lawyers, human right activist and journalist along with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutti and Nawaz Sharif to boycott unconstitutional rights and recent undisputed election. Due to the suspension of the constitution many joined the revolution against political and extremists parties.

GEO TV news director Owais Tauheed spoke to CNN about the conditions of the journalist detained. He explained many are outraged and feel their freedom of speech and freedom of expression has been crushed.

Repeatedly using the word "peaceful protest" Tauheed sounded calm and confident.

"They just want to live in a civilized society and the real fight is between extremist and journalist," Tauheed explained

The journalists are being held at the police station where conditions were suitable. The men were allowed to use mobile phones and were given tea and water.

"This protest is not against President Musharraf, it's an ongoing battle for freedom of speech and for the freedom of expression," Tauheed concluded in his telephone conversation with CNN.

Reports call this a dark day in political history but the activist are working for freedom of speech and demand the release of prisoners. Many are protesting extremist as well as Pakistan's Presdent Gen. Pervez Musharraf recent self re-election.

Since November, when Musharraf declared a state of emergency, some 5,500 opposing protesters were detained. Sources for Pakistan's Interior Ministry claims all detainees will be released soon. Journalist, politicians, lawyers and human rights activist all hope to be set free in their struggle for freedom.

President Musharraf has taken steps to take office for his new term. Many question his re-election for president because reports claim Musharraf discarded his petitions for re election. A Pakistan Supreme Court will hear the final petition on Thursday. Musharraf's ability to declare a state of emergency and cancel television stations shows his ability as Pakistan's President. He is well on his way to not only becoming the next Pakistan President but a dictatorial figure of the Middle East.

Most Pakistanis cannot see or hear the shows, but the phenomenon has quickly become a significant forum for opinion and grievances under emergency rule, imposed by President Pervez Musharraf on Nov. 3. It has also become a gleefully subversive form of political theater, circumventing official efforts to silence more sophisticated forms of critical communication.

On Friday, hundreds of spectators gathered for the open-air edition of Capital Talk, a panel show on Geo television hosted by journalist Hamid Mir. His headline guest was Imran Khan, the former cricket champion and opposition leader fresh from a week in prison, who called on all political parties to boycott "illegitimate" national elections scheduled for January.

The crowd cheered Khan, booed a rival politician, threw rose petals on the stage and chanted, "Go, Musharraf, go!" An elderly man wandered about, holding up a poster of his missing son. A sound van played Pakistani rock; an open truck carried a protester tied to a cross. Riot police, watching from a distance, barred traffic but did not intervene.

Despite the raucous atmosphere of the live shows, the struggle to keep press freedom alive and information flowing under emergency rule has become a determined, sometimes dangerous crusade. The government, having encouraged news media to flourish more boldly than at any time in Pakistan's history, has now decided to sharply rein them in, ostensibly in the name of political stability and anti-terrorism.

Protests by journalists in several cities have been met by stick-wielding police, and dozens of reporters have been detained. Popular talk shows have been forced off the air, and broadcast media have been required to accept a detailed "code of conduct" that, among other things, says they may not transmit material that could "defame or ridicule" the government or its officials.

"Basically they are saying we cannot criticize at all, so what is the use of journalism?" demanded Mir, 41, who is the Islamabad manager of Geo.

"Pakistan's media has tasted freedom now, and it will never be satisfied with less," he added. "The government is trying to stop critical coverage, but the common people and the elites are telling us not to back down. Nobody can stop the change." Although the print media, especially the English-language newspapers read by the country's tiny elite, have been allowed to continue publishing acerbic anti-government commentary and cartoons, the native-language broadcast media - far more important in a country with a high illiteracy rate - has come under aggressive attack.

In addition to banning the celebrity-hosted political shows that are de rigueur nightly viewing for the country's educated classes, officials have confiscated satellite dishes from stores and asked foreign countries to stop the transmission of cable channels into Pakistan. Geo, which has broadcast from Dubai since 2002, is now totally off the air.

"Musharraf was fighting for survival and he had his back to the wall. As far as he was concerned, the source of his problems were the judiciary, the legal community and the electronic media," said Ayaz Amir, an influential newspaper columnist. Viewers tuning to Geo in Pakistan today see only static with a sign saying, "Dear Users: Please note that Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA) has temporarily suspended transmission of independent news TV channels until further instructions."

"We have agreed to some issues, but we have not accepted their dictates. We are giving full coverage to all political activities," said Mohsin Raza, the Islamabad news director. He said that the government had squeezed the channel by detaining several correspondents but that authorities were under international pressure not to shut down independent TV entirely. Another channel, Aaj, was also returned to the air after dropping another popular talk show. Its host, journalist Talat Hussain, said that for years, the late-night panel discussions and their high-profile anchors had "defined issues and given people perspectives" that often contradicted the official version put out on state media.

"We always had an uneasy and dangerous existence, and our transmissions were constantly being interrupted," Hussain said. "This time, they were going for the bigger kill, so they decided to black us out."

For English speakers and foreign communities in major cities, there is still ample access to a variety of political views, including anti-government newspaper commentaries and cartoons, and carefully mild political debates on daytime TV talk shows. Even under emergency rule, columnists have freely lambasted Musharraf as a dictator, often in heavily sarcastic language.

The Jang Group corporation, which controls the News International newspaper as well as Geo, has confronted Musharraf and emergency rule head on. In a scathing editorial a week ago, editors at the News said they would stand up for press independence even if it meant losing millions of dollars. They accused Musharraf of "paranoia" verging on "madness" and demanded that he end his "draconian reign of terror."

Now, the only way for Pakistanis to tune in to Capital Talk is to physically follow its host, guests and studio set - complete with a semicircle of chairs around a coffee table with a fake-flower arrangement - to the national university campus, where it was held Thursday, or the sidewalk in front of the ramshackle offices of the Islamabad-Rawalpindi Press Club, where it was located Friday.

As the street audience cheered and cackled, applauded and hissed at comments from various speakers on the stage, Mir seemed to be presiding over one of the few genuine - if messy - democratic events Pakistan has seen in a long time.

"It is our duty to tell the people what is happening in our country, and we will continue to do so, even if we have to conduct our programs in the footpaths," he vowed.