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Pakistani President
Pervez Musharraf's decision to impose emergency law, which entails
suspending parts of the Pakistani Constitution, comes amid growing
insecurity in the country.
Pakistani police
officer shout for help as police force come under attack by religious
students and protesters who were throwing rocks on them outside
the Red Mosque or Lal Masjid in Islamabad.
The events leading
to the decision began months ago, when Musharraf - prodded by China
and the United States, as well as internal forces (predominately
military) - gave the order to seize the Red Mosque in Islamabad.
China, one of Pakistan's key allies, expressed concern that Chinese
Islamists (Uighur) and Pakistani Islamists would target the 2008
Beijing Olympics. Thus, Beijing wanted Musharraf to stem the tide
of rising Talibanization in Pakistan. In addition, Pakistani Islamists
have increasingly targeted Chinese workers, and Beijing wanted the
perpetrators brought to justice and the violence ended. From the
American perspective, there has been a growing feeling that Musharraf
has not been doing enough to deal with the Talibanization of the
Pakistan-Afghan border.
Internally,
Musharraf has also faced pressure from Pakistanis unhappy with his
rule (lack of democracy), as well as rising Islamism, which has
seen the closure of music shops, cinemas and other places considered
Western.
The storming
of the Red Mosque and the killing of its leader, Abdul Rashid Ghazi,
and over 100 of his followers (men and women), created a backlash
in the tribal belt. As a result, groups such as Tehrik Nifaz Shariat
Muhammadi (Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Law), as well
as more established ones like al-Qaida, began a terrorist campaign
directed against Musharraf and the military. Ayman al-Zawahri, al-Qaida's
second-in-command, declared soon after, "This crime can only
be washed by repentance or blood."
The next key
moment was Musharraf's decision to suspend Chief Justice Iftikhar
Muhammad Chaudhry in March 2007 on spurious charges of nepotism
and abuse of power. Chaudhry's decision to begin examining the behavior
of the security services and possible human rights violations upset
the military, as it had operated for decades without judicial supervision.
The suspension led to mass street demonstrations, as well as clashes
between pro-government supporters and Chaudhry supporters. Eventually,
Chaudhry was reinstated, but it meant the two men and the two institutions
would remain at loggerheads. This was evident most clearly with
the court's decision to allow former prime minister Nawaz Sharif
to return to Pakistan, after which Musharraf expelled Sharif again.
In the best-case
scenario, the emergency rule will be in operation for a short time,
allowing the government to deal with the Islamists and prepare the
country for national elections, which are scheduled for January
2008. This would require close cooperation between Musharraf, former
prime minister Benazir Bhutto and the military - a difficult task
because Bhutto has come out against the imposition of emergency
law, as well against Musharraf. She has also made many enemies within
the military, especially after the Karachi attack on her homecoming
convoy, when she pointed an accusing finger at rogue elements within
the security services and the military.
In the worst-case
scenario, Pakistan may descend into civil war, with the Islamists
declaring jihad on the Musharraf government. This would be a disaster,
as the Islamists have shown themselves to be ferocious fighters.
Moreover, it would necessitate the continuation of emergency rule,
something that the international community and leading opposition
members - particularly Bhutto, Sharif and cricket-star-turned-politician
Imran Khan - reject.
Ultimately,
Musharraf must find a balance between dealing with the Islamists,
moderate Pakistanis clamoring for democratization, and an increasingly
impatient international community unhappy with Musharraf's governance
style.
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