National Reconciliation: myth and reality

Afzal Khan
ISLAMABAD: Pakistani politics is currently in ferment-once again. It is all a familiar sight, particularly in case of present government, which has lurched into the fourth year amid hiccups at regular intervals. A realignment of forces is in the offing. The PML-Q seems all set, in principle, to formalize its relationship with the PPP and join the government, if not the cabinet.

The PPP has named this cohabitation of strange bed-follows as part of its policy of “national reconciliation”. The expression has been used and abused with a sickening repetition to explain every odd conduct. The PML-Q chief Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain is one of shrewdest and consummate politicians in the country with an uncanny intrinsic pragmatism. He has his own reasons to take a plunge at this point of time. President Zardari, however, has more compelling motivation to woo the people whom he once described as assassins.

For Shujaat, it is vindication that provides a various satisfaction but M Zardari is impelled by urgency in a struggle for survival. The looming potential crisis on passage of budget is the first goalpost to cross. Once it is achieved, more tantalizing opportunities promise to open up—Nawaz Sharif’s isolation, another try in the elusive dream of conquering Punjab, absolute majority in the Senate election next year and a tactical advantage of dividing League votes in general elections a year later.

Ostensibly, the parliamentary calculus should pose little difficulty to the adoption of the budget. But it all hinges on the ever-shifting MQM variable. Altaf Hussain will again demand his pound of flesh, which is far more unpalatable than mere dole out of cabinet posts to PML-Q. The MQM is trying to assess implications of Zardari’s move to entice the PML-Q as a countervailing force to neutralize its bargaining chips. Its nemesis, the irrepressible Dr Zulfiqar Mirza, is due back in a month and before the budget. Given his outbursts at the time of departure, more trouble is in store when he returns.

Shujaat has been busy all along to retain the allegiance of all that is left of the PML-Q after first bout of fragmentation in the wake of 2008 election debacle. If historical experience is any guide, the election reversal and Musharraf’s ouster should have led to virtual extinction of the party. But it is no mean achievement that he has been able to keep a very sizeable faction intact. His political acumen and skill is now under severe test as he decides to take the PPP bait.

Apparently, this is a dicey situation and a potentially divisive proposition. He is being asked the inevitable question: “What is there for us to gain?” A few cabinet posts would not satisfy all and the left out would resent.

There is also the embarrassment of committing a political somersault for many like Mushahid, Legharis, Faisal Saleh Hayat and others, who have been bitter critics of the government and the person of Mr Zardari for corruption, incompetence and bad governance. A more serious problem relates to political cost in aligning with what several PML-Q leaders had branded as a “sinking ship”.

The PML-Q would be required to accept the ownership of the political, economic and social mess in the country in whose creation, it has hardly played any part. It will also face the popular wrath over price hikes, endemic corruption, unemployment and dismal law and order conditions. The party cannot guarantee that its affiliation with the PPP would help overcome these formidable and almost intractable challenges. The ‘Patriots’, who had rebelled against the PPP and joined the government in 2008 to give Jamali a one-vote majority in 2002, are more reluctant than others to move over to the PPP government.

But Shujaat appears to have calmed their conscience and persuaded them to fall in line. Leghari brothers’ precondition of extracting PPP commitment for the creation of Saraiki province is nothing more than the ‘twist my arm’ ploy because the PPP is already wedded to the idea. Faisal Saleh Hayat can be silenced in the seat adjustments formula in Jhang whereby Abdia Hussain gets a provincial seat for her daughter and some high profile assignment.

A relatively plausible explanation for Shujaat in persuading his colleagues is the imperative of pulling the nation from its present deplorable predicament, which would worsen if the government collapses. For this reason he has been advocating a government of national consensus, if not national government embracing all major political parties. He also wants the JUI return to the treasury benches and the MQM to stay with the present position. If this is not achieved, Shujaat would back the government and save it from falling apart instead of joining the cabinet.

The benefits of compact with the PPP include prospect of a share in government after three years of political wilderness, development funds and projects to woo votes and seat adjustments in elections. The Chaudhrys have probably surmounted the obsession with making Moonis Elahai as Punjab chief minister, which is unacceptable to the PPP considering its experience with Manzoor Wattoo in the 1990s. Moonis’s court case, however, remains a real worrisome issue despite disclaimers by them. If the Shahbaz Sharif government falls, it would be a very big bonus.

Shujaat’s primary concern is to bring back into the party fold the rebels like the ‘unification’ group in Punjab and the ‘like-minded’ at the centre. Apart from the lure of government, a legal threat of disqualification when they vote for or against the budget in violation of leadership’s directive would be used to secure compliance. But politics has its own ways and may not be affected by legal battles.

Most PML-Q members would like unification of all factions of the Muslim League because it becomes the dominant political force relegating the PPP to secondary position. But Nawaz Sharif’s ego and rigid stance against the Chaudhrys is major hurdle in that. If Asif Zardari succeeds in roping in the PML-Q and winning back JUI Sharifs’ political isolation would be complete which would be a welcome development for the Chaudhrys.

—(To be continued) Afzal Khan is senior journalist based in Islamabad.