The by-elections in Punjab on July 17 could be a litmus test for both the PTI and the ruling-PML-N to bag Pakistan’s most populous and politically important province.
Imran Khan’s PTI lost its razor-thin majority in the Punjab Assembly in April, after 25 of its lawmakers sided with its rival, the PML-N, in the election for chief minister.
In next month’s by-polls, the PTI is hoping to claw back to power in the province.
On the other side of the ring is the PML-N, which needs a big win to ensure that its newly-appointed chief minister, Hamza Shehbaz, retains his seat of power.
Twenty provincial constituencies are on the ballot after the Election Commission unseated 25 MPAs for voting against party lines. Of the 25, five lawmakers were on reserved seats and 20 on contestable seats.
Political pundits are expecting a tough contest between opponents PML-N and PTI in the by-polls as the majority of the 20 defecting PTI MPAs have hitched their wagons to the PML-N.
It is also important to mention that in the 2018 general elections, of the 20 MPAs who won the polls, 10 contested as independent candidates and later joined the PTI due to the efforts of businessman and politician, Jahangir Khan Tareen.
Here are some of the factors that go in each party’s favour:
PTI has charged up and motivated voters, who are sold on Imran Khan’s foreign conspiracy narrative. These voters could give a tough time to the PML-N in constituencies that fall in urban areas, by turning up in large numbers on election day.
Strong local candidates like Yasir Khan Jatoi and Mozzam Khan Jatoi in Muzaffargarh or Saif Khosa in DG Khan can give the PTI an edge in five constituencies.
By-elections are being held at a time of uncertainty, when it is unclear if the general election will be held this year or in 2023. This could translate into a lacklustre election campaign by PML-N candidates, who are unsure for how long they will remain MPAs, and this could also mean a low voter turnout.
Tickets have been awarded to returning candidates, who won in 2018. These electables bring their own vote back.
PML-N is the ruling party and it is highly unlikely for a party in power to lose a by-election.
The PML-N candidates also have the support of the PPP and other PDM parties.
In by-elections, local politics, family standing and influence matter more than party politics.
Of all the by-elections held in Punjab from 2018 to 2021, the PML-N won a majority, even when the PTI was in power. Out of the 29 national and provincial constituencies which were up for grabs in Punjab, the PML-N was successful in 14, while the PTI won 10.
It is also important to mention that in the 2018 general elections, of the 20 MPAs who won the polls, 10 contested as independent candidates and later joined the PTI due to the efforts of businessman and politician, Jahangir Khan Tareen.
Who are the returned candidates and who will they face off against?
Here's all you need to know about the 20 constituencies:
Raja Sagheer Ahmed — won as an independent in 2018 and later joined the PTI
PML-N’s candidate: Raja Sagheer Ahmed
Sagheer Ahmed’s father and brother were former members of the district council.
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PTI’s candidate: Lt. Col. Shabbir Awan
Awan began his political career with the PPP in 2008, and was elected MPA that year. He joined the PTI in 2011.
The constituency falls under NA-57, where PTI’s Sadaqat Ali Abbasi is MNA.
Malik Ghulam Rasool Sangha — won as an independent in 2018 and later joined the PTI
PML-N’s candidate: Ameer Haider Sangha
Sangha is said to have the support of the PPP and other parties of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM).
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PTI’s candidate: Hasan Aslam Awan
He is Umer Aslam’s younger brother.
The constituency falls under NA-93, where PTI’s Umer Aslam Awan is MNA.
Saeed Akbar Khan Niwani — won as an independent in 2018 and later joined the PTI
PML-N’s candidate: Saeed Akbar Khan Niwani
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PTI’s candidate: Irfanullah Niazi
He is a former general secretary of the PML-N Bhakkar.In 2018, Niazi contested the election on a PML-N ticket but lost. Niazi joined the PTI this month.
The constituency falls under NA-97, where PTI’s Sana Ullah Khan Masti Khel is MNA.
Muhammad Ajmal Cheema — won as an independent in 2018 and later joined the PTI
PML-N’s candidate: Muhammad Ajmal Cheema
Cheema is a former provincial minister in Punjab.
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PTI’s candidate: Ali Afzal Sahi
Sahi is the son of the former speaker of the Punjab Assembly.
The constituency falls under NA-101, where PTI’s Muhammad Asim Nazeer is MNA.
As per local sources, PTI and PML-N party workers are upset with Cheema for consistently changing parties, which could dent his vote bank.
Faisal Hayat Jabboana — won as an independent in 2018 and later joined the PTI
PML-N’s candidate: Faisal Hayat Jabboana
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PTI’s candidate: Mian Muhammad Azam Cheela
PTI has awarded the ticket to Azam Cheela, who was also the party’s candidate in 2018, but lost to Jabboana.
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Independent candidate:Iftikhar Ahmed Baloch
A third strong candidate in the running is Iftikhar Ahmed Baloch, a former MPA of PML-N, who was not awarded a ticket by the PML-N, so he is contesting independently.
The constituency falls under NA-114, where PTI’s Sahabzada Muhammad Mehboob Sultan is MNA.
Mehar Muhammad Aslam Bharwana — won as an independent in 2018 and later joined the PTI
PML-N’s candidate: Mehar Muhammad Aslam Bharwana
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PTI’s candidate: Muhammad Nawaz Bharwana
The PTI has awarded the ticket to the same person it fielded in 2018. However, it is important to note that Nawaz Bharwana joined PTI only a few months before the July 2018 general polls.
The constituency falls under NA-115, where PTI’s Ghulam Bibi Bharwana is MNA.
Mian Khalid Mehmood — won the constituency as a PTI candidate
PML-N’s candidate: Mian Khalid Mehmood
Mehmood was in PML-Q in 2002, on whose platform he won the seat of MPA for the first time. In 2018, he contested on a PTI ticket and won.
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PTI’s candidate: Khurram Virk
The constituency falls under NA-121, where PML-N’s Javed Latif is MNA.
In 2018, in this constituency, PML-N came second and TLP came third.
Abdul Aleem Khan — won the constituency as a PTI candidate
PML-N’s candidate: Sohaib Siddiqui (not finalised)
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PTI’s candidate: Mian Akram Usman
Usman is the son of former MNA Mian Usman and son-in-law of PTI’s Mian Mahmood-ur-Rashid.
The constituency falls under NA-129, where PML-N’s Ayaz Sadiq is MNA.
Aleem Khan will not contest the by-election and will instead support the PML-N candidate.
Nazir Ahmed Chohan — won the constituency as a PTI candidate
PML-N’s candidate: Nazir Ahmed Chohan
Chohan was with PML-Q in 2002 and joined the PTI in 2012.
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PTI’s candidate: Shabbir Gujjar
Gujjar is brother of PTI’s ticket holder in 2018, Khalid Gujjar.
The constituency falls under NA-133, where PML-N’s Shaista Pervaiz Malik is MNA.
Malik Asad Ali Khokhar — won the constituency as a PTI candidate
PML-N’s candidate: Malik Asad Ali Khokhar
Khokhar ran in the race for NA-136 as a PTI candidate in 2018 but lost. When PML-N’s Saad Rafique gave up PP-168, to retain his national constituency, Khokhar contested the by-elections for PP-168 and won.
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PTI’s candidate: Malik Nawaz Awan
The constituency falls under NA-133 and NA-131, where PML-N’s Shaista Pervaiz Malik and PML-N’s Saad Rafique are MNAs respectively.
Malik will support Khokhar in the by-polls.
Muhammad Amin Zulqarnain — won the constituency as a PTI candidate
PML-N’s candidate: Muhammad Amin Zulqarnain
Zulqarnain is Awn Chaudhry’s brother. He started his political career in 2005 from the platform of PML-Q.
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PTI’s candidate: Zaheer Abbas Khokhar
Khokhar is a former MNA and former managing director Bait-ul-Maal.
The constituency falls under NA-134, where PML-N’s Rana Mubashir Iqbal is MNA.
Malik Nauman Ahmad Langrial — won the constituency as a PTI candidate
PML-N’s candidate: Malik Nauman Ahmad Langrial
Langrial joined the PTI in 2017.
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PTI’s candidate: Major (retired) Ghulam Sarwar
PTI’s candidate Sarwar started his political career with Jamaat-e-Islami.
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Independent candidate:Adil Saeed Gujjar
He is the son of a former lawmaker, who was hoping for a PTI ticket but was not awarded one. He is in the race as an independent.
Constituency profile
The constituency falls under NA-149, where PTI’s Murtaza Iqbal is MNA.
Muhammad Salman Naeem — won as an independent in 2018 and later joined the PTI
PML-N’s candidate: Muhammad Salman Naeem
Naeem will have the support of both the PPP and other PDM parties.
In 2018, Naeem beat Shah Mehmood Qureshi in this provincial seat and became an MPA for the first time.
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PTI’s candidate:Zain Qureshi
He is the son of Shah Mehmood Qureshi.
The constituency falls under NA-156, where PTI’s Shah Mehmood Qureshi is MNA.
Zawar Hussain Warraich — won the constituency as a PTI candidate
PML-N’s candidate: Zawar Hussain Warraich
Warraich is considered close to Jahangir Tareen.
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PTI’s candidate: Amir Iqbal Shah
Shah was a PML-N ticket holder in 2018 and is now PTI’s candidate.
In 2017, Shah’s father defeated the son of Tareen, who was the PTI candidate in the by-election for NA-154.
The constituency falls under NA-160, where PML-N’s Abdul Rehman Khan Kanju is MNA.
Nazir Ahmed Baloch — won the constituency as a PTI candidate
PML-N’s candidate: Nazir Ahmed Baloch
Baloch enjoys the support of the PPP and the PDM.
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PTI’s candidate: Captain retired Javed Khan
Khan has been with the PTI since 2013 and was previously part of the Tareen group.
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Independent candidate:Saeed Rafi Bukhari
A third strong contender is Saeed Rafi Bukhari, who is contesting independently.
Constituency profile
The constituency falls under NA-161, where PTI’s Mian Muhammad Shafiq is MNA.
Fida Hussain — won as an independent in 2018 and later joined the PTI
PML-N’s candidate: Fida Hussain
Hussain is considered to be a strong candidate, as he has been elected MPA thrice in a row.
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PTI’s candidate: Aftab Mehmood (not finalised)
PTI’s Mehmood is contesting for the first time.
The constituency falls under NA-166, where PTI’s Muhammad Abdul Ghafar Wattoo is MNA.
Zahra Batool — won the constituency as a PTI candidate
PML-N’s candidate: Zehra Basit Bukhari
Zehra Bukhari is the wife of PTI MNA Basit Sultan Bukhari.
Bukhari’s brother is also in the running as an independent candidate
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PTI’s candidate: Mozzam Khan Jatoi
Jatoi is a former minister and MNA.
The constituency falls under NA-185, where PTI’s Basit Bukhari is MNA.
Muhammad Sibtain Raza — won the constituency as a PTI candidate
PML-N’s candidate: Muhammad Sibtain Raza
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PTI’s candidate: Yasir Khan Jatoi
In the past, Jatoi has been elected an MPA from the PPP platform. His brother and father, both, were members of the parliament.
The constituency falls under NA-183, where PPP’s Raza Rabbani Khar is MNA.
Muhammad Tahir Randhawa — won as an independent in 2018 and later joined the PTI
PML-N’s candidate: Muhammad Tahir Randhawa
Randhawa’s brother was union council chairman in 2005.
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PTI’s candidate: Qaiser Abbas Magsi
Magsi contested the 2008 and 2013 elections on a PML-N ticket and won as MPA. He joined the PTI in 2018 just before the election.
The constituency falls under NA-188, where PTI’s Niaz Ahmed Jakhar is MNA.
Mohsin Atta Khan Khosa — won as an independent in 2018 and later joined the PTI
PML-N’s candidate: Abdul Qadir Khosa
He is the son of PTI MNA Amjad Farooq Khan Khosa.
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PTI’s candidate: Saif Khosa
He is the son of the former governor Punjab Zulfiqar Ali Khan Khosa.
The constituency falls under NA-190, where PTI’s Amjad Farooq Khan Khosa is MNA.