War on Ukraine is straining Russia financially as the Eastern European nation has redoubled its 2023 defence budget target to more than $100 billion, which is roughly equal to a third of its all public spending, a government document reviewed by Reuters showed.
The figures showed Russia's spending on the conflict at a time when sector-specific budget expenditure data is no longer published, according to Reuters.
They show that in the first half of 2023 alone, Russia spent 12%, or 600 billion roubles, more on defence than the 4.98 trillion roubles ($54 billion) it had originally targeted for 2023.
“Defence spending in the first six months of 2023 amounted to 5.59 trillion roubles, 37.3% of a total 14.97 trillion roubles spent in the period,” the document showed. Russia's budget plan envisages 17.1% of total funds spent on "National Defence".
Rising war costs are supporting Russia's modest economic recovery this year with higher industrial production, but have already pushed budget finances to a deficit of around $28 billion — a figure compounded by falling export revenues.
Higher spending on defence, as Moscow prosecutes what it calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine, could widen the deficit further, while the boost in output could cannibalise other sectors and crowd out private investment.
The calculations showed that Russia had spent 19.2% on defence in the first six months of all initially planned budget expenditures for 2023 as a whole.
The last available figures show Moscow spent 2 trillion roubles on the military in January and February. In the first half of this year, budget spending was 2.44 trillion roubles — higher than the same period of 2022. Based on the document, 97.1% of that extra sum was directed to the defence sector.
The document provided a new estimate for annual defence spending of 9.7 trillion roubles, one-third of the total spending target of 29.05 trillion roubles, which would be the highest share in at least the last decade.
Between 2011 and 2022, Russia spent a minimum of 13.9% and a maximum of 23% of its budget on defence.
Russia has already spent 57.4% of its new annual defence budget, the document showed.
Military production has driven a strong recovery in industrial output, and analysts say that state defence contracts have been a key driver in Russia's economic recovery to GDP growth so far this year from a 2.1% contraction in 2022.
Specific defence funding falls under closed expenditures, but some data, though no longer public, is circulated. For example, the document shows that Russia spent almost 1 trillion roubles on military salaries in the first half, 543 billion roubles more than in the same period last year.
Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said in July that the defence industry was now producing more munitions each month than it did in the whole of 2022.
Funding for schools, hospitals and roads was already being squeezed this year in favour of defence and security, but as the share of defence spending grows, other areas could face cuts.
"The military-industrial complex is enabling industrial growth, 'civilian' industries are slowing down again," said Dmitry Polevoy, head of investment at Locko-Invest, after last week's industrial output data for June.
That showed a 6.5% year-on-year increase, largely thanks to last year's low base effect. When excluding seasonal production, growth stopped altogether.
CentroCreditBank economist Yevgeny Suvorov said the military industry was running at full capacity.
"We don't know what the potential for a further increase in the output of tanks and missiles is," Suvorov said on his MMI Telegram channel. "But we know that increasing this output even further is possible only at the expense of haemorrhaging more staff from other sectors of the economy."
Net exporter Russia typically posts budget surpluses but will post a deficit for the second year running, with the value of energy exports down 47% year-on-year in the first half.
Higher budget spending adds to inflation risks. The central bank hiked rates to 8.5% in July and analysts expect the cost of borrowing to rise further.
The Bank of Russia forecasts GDP growth at 1.5%-2.5% this year, in line with analysts polled by Reuters last week.
"Abundant fiscal 'steroids' are helping fairly well for now, but are hardly improving the economy's medium- or long-term position," said Polevoy. "As soon as fiscal consolidation becomes unavoidable, there will be a rapid economic slowdown."