Has President Trump tariff bracketed India back to the Russian basket, and is a new world order in the making after the SCO Summit?
Well, those who want to jump to any conclusion must wait till the yearend. A lot of dust may settle after the G20 Summit in Johannesburg and the Quad Summit in New Delhi.
True that the Indian prime minister has skipped addressing the United Nations General Assembly session in late September and avoided visiting the White House after the G-7 summit in June.
It is equally right that Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on India that exclusively includes a 25% penalty for buying Russian oil. And yes, he has urged Europe to follow with even harsher penalties.
But in the last two decades, the United States of America and India have cultivated so close ties that personal grievances of leaders appear to have little potential to alter the course of strengthening the "integral relationship".
A litmus test of these relations may be done in South Africa, where leaders of the G-20 member states are scheduled to meet on November 22. In September 2023, it was the same summit in New Delhi that had given birth to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
The IMEC is considered a rival, not an alternative, to China’s grand Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Maybe the Chinese president had some prior knowledge about the IMEC initiative, so he skipped that G-20 Summit.
The signatories of the initial memorandum of understanding for the IMEC included India, the United States of America, the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Upon completion, it would link India to Europe via the Gulf region through Israel.
It is a strange fact that hardly a month had passed since this launch when Hamas spectacularly attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. The escalation going on since then has put a huge question mark on the viability of Israeli ports of Haifa and Ashdod as connecting points to Europe.
Though some infrastructure is yet to be developed in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Israel to make this transportation corridor for goods, energy, and digital connectivity. Israel’s recent attack on Qatar has added further to the uncertainty about its operability.
Is the project shelved by the Arab world and India? Certainly, not. These are brief moments in history that have the potential to fade out. And that is why one must wait before jumping to any conclusion.
In the case of India, apart from its good relations with the United States, it is considered one of the strongest allies, a strategic partner, and the biggest buyer of Israeli weapons in the region.
And Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoys a decades-long relationship with controversial Gujarati billionaire Gautam Adani, who has bought 70 per cent of Haifa port share at a shockingly outsized bid.
For some of these reasons, it will be too early to deduce more meanings from the actions Modi performed for the camera at the SCO Summit in Tianjin.
And, that may have been the reason why Russian President Vladimir Putin was apparently seen less jubilant when Modi opted to enter the hall holding his hand in high spirits.
At the top of it, Modi showed no interest in attending the grand victory parade against the Japanese aggression in World War II. As a matter of fact, he has tried to use his presence at the SCO Summit as a bargaining chip to draw more attention from President Trump.
While visiting Beijing, the Indian prime minister had to please Tokyo as well. Modi knew his presence at the parade would irk Japan. And as a consequence, Tokyo may skip the upcoming Quadrilateral Security Dialogue in India. So, he left early.
The dates for the Quad, which comprises Australia, India, Japan, and the United States of America, are another forum to challenge the increasing footprint of China.
It's a big question if the US president would avoid attending the Quad meeting in New Delhi over his differences with Prime Minister Modi. President Trump has admitted that, "Looks like we've lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China."
Till July this year, all was on track between New Delhi and Washington when the foreign ministers of Australia, India, and Japan had met in the US capital for the 10th Quad Foreign Ministers’ meeting.
The FMs had "welcomed recent and upcoming activities conducted by their four countries and in cooperation with partners to advance a free and open Indo-Pacific". The Quad is also expanding maritime law enforcement cooperation in the border security domain.
It was also agreed to "formally launch the Quad Ports of the Future Partnership by hosting a transportation and logistics conference with Indo-Pacific partners in Mumbai in October 2025". Cable connectivity is also being advanced. In some ways, these goals are supportive of the IMEC.
In a nutshell, the United States considers India as a "net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region". There is no indication that this relationship will change if the Indian National Congress comes back to power.
After all, it was former prime minister Manmohan Singh who oversaw an increasing tilt towards the United States of America.
A lot of water has flown under the bridge since then. And in realistic terms, it's close to impossible that India will slide back towards Russia or forge closer cooperation with China.
Yes, there are some who believe that a New World Order is emerging where Russia, China and India will become the dominating force on the planet.
No doubt, Russia and China are already challenging the existing world order by turning the planet into a multipolar world.
As far as India is concerned, it has all the hallmarks of remaining a stronger ally of Washington but will keep using its relations with Moscow and Beijing to its advantage.
Washington, too, has no choice. There is no alternative in the region that can ditch the BRI for the IMEC, despite being a member of the SCO, and join the Quad over establishing a security dialogue with its neighbour, China.
Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed in this piece are the writer's own and don't necessarily reflect Geo.tv's editorial policy.
The author is Controller News at Geo News. He posts on X at NasimHaider2 and can be reached at nasim.haidergeo.tv