On May 7, between 1:30am and 1:38am IST (Indian Standard Time), an Indian Air Force (IAF) 4.5-generation multirole Rafale EH was neutralised by Pakistani fire.
Within the same eight-minute window, three additional Rafales were downed, contributing to a staggering toll of at least seven IAF assets lost — four Rafales, one MiG-29, one Mirage 2000 and one Su-30MKI.
In the annals of aerial warfare, this frenetic eight-minute maelstrom stands as an epoch-defining conflagration. The historic engagement has done two things: first, redefined the battlespace; and second, showcased Pakistan’s formidable prowess in electronic countermeasures (ECM) and integrated air defence systems (IADS).
To be certain, the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) marks a pivotal evolution in bilateral ties. The SMDA underscores two critical geopolitical realities: first, Saudi Arabia's growing apprehension regarding the reliability of US security commitments; and second, the significant enhancement of Pakistan’s regional deterrence posture.
In 2019–2020, Saudi Arabia paid $500 million annually towards US troop costs in the kingdom, covering around 3,000 troops. Annual maintenance contracts for Saudi Arabia's F-15 fleet cost $2 billion/year. Patriot missile support $230 million/year.
Training $300 million a year. Logistics support $300 million per year. Joint exercises $100 million per year. Intelligence sharing $200 million per year. From 2020 to 2025, Saudi Arabia paid $70 million per year for US advisory support. Over a 10-year period, arms sales amounted to $350 billion or an average of $35 billion a year.
For the Pakistan Army leadership, the SMDA offers two significant opportunities: first, to strengthen Pakistan’s strategic capabilities; and second, to promote economic stability. Below are seven specific strategic recommendations to optimise benefits while addressing potential challenges.
One, the Pakistan Army must immediately operationalise the SMDA's collective defence clause by establishing a framework for interoperability with Saudi forces, focusing on multi-domain operations — air, land, cyber and electronic warfare. Within the next three months, the army must launch bilateral joint exercises, including simulated scenarios defending Saudi holy sites against aerial incursions.
Two, the army must integrate training programmes for 10,000-15,000 Saudi personnel annually at Pakistani facilities like the National Defence University, emphasising Pakistan's battle-tested doctrines in beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat and electronic warfare (EW).
Three, the Pakistan Army must develop standardised protocols for intelligence sharing via a joint operations centre in Riyadh or Tabuk, incorporating Pakistan's satellite reconnaissance with Saudi ground-based sensors to create a 360-degree air defence network.
Four, the mutual support provisions of the SMDA could potentially involve Pakistan in Saudi-related conflicts (like Houthi threats), which may place additional strain on Pakistan's economy amid existing fiscal constraints.
To mitigate this, Pakistan should pursue a dedicated SMDA annexe focused on energy security, securing guaranteed Saudi oil supplies at preferential rates to bolster economic resilience.
Five, Pakistan should also seek a dedicated SMDA annexe to establish a $10 billion to $15 billion Saudi investment fund specifically for Pakistan’s defence industry.
This fund could support collaborative projects, such as the co-production of advanced weaponry. Six, Pakistan must initiate joint ventures for co-developing systems like integrated air defence networks, combining Pakistan's Erieye AEW&C with Saudi radar assets, targeting export to OIC members for revenue generation.
Seven, Pakistan must secure Saudi funding for R&D in hypersonic missiles and drones, leveraging Pakistan's PL-15 success to adapt for Saudi needs, while importing Saudi/UAE expertise in cyber defence to bolster Pakistan's capabilities.
The SMDA heralds a new era of strategic synergy, empowering Pakistan to strengthen its military capabilities and economic stability while solidifying its pivotal role in regional security dynamics.
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The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. He posts saleemfarrukh and can be reached at: farrukh15hotmail.com