Without getting formal recognition from any single state, the Taliban have successfully completed four years in power. Now, Washington is attempting to win back the country, it had left in haste to foes like China, Russia and Iran.
A source claimed that the Trump administration is making serious efforts to reach out to Kabul. Through diplomatic engagements, officials are discussing issues beyond the horizon of the American detainees in Afghanistan.
Trade is one of the top agenda. This step by the Trump administration is in sheer contrast to Biden’s policies of economically isolating the Taliban. In a way, that policy, partly played a role in bringing other players into the picture.
A number of global policy think tanks also share the burden. They had made a wrongful assessment. Hence, portrayed a bleak future for Afghanistan.
For instance, on May 22, 2022, almost nine months after the Taliban captured Kabul, Rand Corporation predicted that, “Now Afghanistan is hurtling towards a humanitarian catastrophe, as its banking system approaches collapse, its currency is at risk of hyperinflation, and its population faces impoverishment and even starvation”.
Today, Afghani is one of the most stable currencies in the region. The country has accommodated 6 million Afghans who returned to their country after living for decades as refugees in Iran and Pakistan. Each family is officially being allocated a plot to build a house.
Enforcement of strict rules and checking on corruption is helping them manage the law and order situation far better.
Even in October 2019, President Trump admitted that, “It’s embarrassing to us as a nation. All over the world, they’re talking about Chicago. Afghanistan is a safe place by comparison.”
According to Statista, from 2017 to 2021, the unemployment rate in Afghanistan remained between 11.18% to 11.99%. In 2022, it was 14.1%. In 2023, it was 13.99% and in 2024, 13.3%. That too, without the IMF or the World Bank bailout.
Yes, Afghanistan has yet to develop its economy on a larger scale. Shortage of power is serving as a stumbling block in setting up factories. Needless to say, agriculture and coal mining cannot be an answer to the economic woes.
The void is being rightly filled by Beijing, Moscow and Tehran as Afghan trade with these capitals has significantly increased. For instance, Tehran provides 25% of Kabul’s imports, which include oil, steel, agricultural goods and construction materials.
As per the Tehran Times, “In 2024, the bilateral trade volume surged by approximately 84 per cent compared to the previous year, reaching a total of $3.197 billion. Iran's exports to Afghanistan accounted for $3.143 billion of this figure, marking an 83 per cent rise from 2023. Conversely, Afghanistan's exports to Iran grew by 116 per cent, totalling $54 million.”
By lifting the ban through its Supreme Court, Russia has facilitated the Taliban by building their image as a peaceful entity.
Even after the fall of Kabul, President Putin had said, “US forces were deployed there for 20 years and tried to civilise local residents during that period... In effect, they tried to impose their own norms…. This spelt nothing but tragedies’’.
The pro-Taliban policy has paid President Putin well. Bilateral trade between Russia and Afghanistan has shown a continuous upward trajectory. It has increased from $86 million in 2021 to $3 billion in 2024. Russia is further showing interest in mineral exploration and the mining industry.
The Chinese president has gone a step further by accepting credentials from the representative of Afghanistan, along with envoys of Pakistan, Iran and 39 other countries.
Xi Jinping recently said, “We should strengthen coordination to help the country boost its development capacity and achieve peace, stability, reconstruction and development at an early date.”
In 2024, China’s exports to Afghanistan were $1.54 billion. It was far higher than the previous years. In 2021, these were $472 million, in 2022, $1.27 billion and in 2023, $1.27 billion. In addition to that, China is securing contacts in $1 trillion worth mining industry.
In reality, China, Russia and Iran have taken advantage of their neutral stance. Their so-called ‘respect’ for Afghans’ aspirations has won them the hearts and minds of the Taliban. On their part, Kabul has secured its investments to a reasonable level.
Now, Washington is entering into this picture. It seemingly wants to avoid mistakes committed by China and Russia during late 1990s.
Beijing and Moscow had ignored the militants when they first captured Kabul. Learning bitter lessons from that era, these countries left no stone unturned to mend ties as the Taliban's takeover became imminent.
By stressing that the United States should get control of Bagram Airbase, President Trump is apparently opening up space for wider negotiations.
First and foremost, who better than Trump knows that the Taliban would never hand over Bagram Airbase to the United States? For it was during his first term that the Doha Peace Deal was signed. And the Taliban had clearly refused to give this strategically important base.
Without allowing this scribe to reveal identity, a Taliban official said: “The US is acting like a superpower but knows well that it is dealing with the ones who had beaten Nato four years ago.’’
“Those who are asking for Bagram airbase better remember how many times it was bombed and that too during high-profile visits by the US administration,’’ remarked the Taliban official.
The Taliban know that the time is on their side as no one can domestically challenge their writ. The regime is using this position as a bargaining chip to deal with everyone in the region.
As the Trump administration makes inroads in Afghanistan, it is clear that without expressing humility over humiliation and opting for facilitations over slamming sanctions, it can restore trust.
Famous Afghan poet Jalal al-Din Muhammad Rumi once said, “Only from the heart can you touch the sky.’’