Pakistan is likely to experience one of its coldest winters in decades due to the La Niña climate phenomenon, according to the report published by the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG).
The latest situation report on Pakistan’s monsoon floods warns that the La Nina pattern could bring colder-than-usual temperatures across much of the country, further straining the coping mechanisms of flood-affected households, particularly in the mountainous areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Gilgit Baltistan (GB).
A La Nina occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean drop abnormally, disrupting global weather systems and often leading to extreme temperature shifts.
In its October forecast, the report published by UN-OCHA says marginally negative phases of both the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole are expected to influence rainfall across Pakistan.
“Northern Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Gilgit Baltistan may experience below-normal rainfall, while southern regions, including Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab, are likely to receive near-normal precipitation,” it noted.
“Expected impacts include possible disruptions to Kharif crop harvesting due to isolated storms, increased risk of dengue outbreaks in stagnant water conditions, higher chances of glacial lake outburst floods in upper areas, reduced river inflows affecting irrigation, elevated smog and air pollution in plains, and adverse effects on livestock health and fodder availability due to above-normal temperatures,” the report added.
It further said that Pakistan faces a deepening post-flood crisis marked by reduced response capacity and growing risks to food security and health.
The report noted “a diminishing response capacity both by government and humanitarian partners,” stating that while local and international actors had mounted a strong initial response, their presence and resources on the ground had since declined.
“Pre-positioned stocks and initial emergency funds were used, with humanitarian partners now seeking additional funding for sustained interventions to ensure provision of basic services during the transition period from a humanitarian response to that of early recovery,” the report said.
A recent geo-spatial impact assessment by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) found that floodwaters inundated around 1.2 million hectares in Punjab, the country’s agricultural hub, damaging major rice, cotton, and sugarcane crops. The flooding coincided with the critical window for Rabi crop planting, compounding threats to food security and livelihoods.
“Crop fields were flooded, devastating harvests, livestock and fodder were swept away, and livelihood assets including machinery and agricultural tools were damaged or destroyed, wreaking havoc on livelihoods and chances of restarting income-generating activities in the near future,” the report noted.