Another key policy rate hike likely on Monday to meet IMF conditions: analysts

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will likely hike key policy rate again on Monday (July 31) to rein in inflation in line with the conditions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), analysts said on Thursday.

The IMF urged Pakistan in a staff report earlier in July to continue its monetary tightening cycle, a week after the lender approved the new bailout arrangement with Pakistan which helped it avert a debt default.

Nine out of 16 analysts predicted the central bank will raise the key rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 23% at its policy meeting next week, while one saw a smaller 50 bps increase and six expected no change.

The SBP has raised its key policy rate by 12.25 percentage points since April 2022, mainly to curb soaring inflation.

The state bank held rates steady in June saying inflation had peaked at 38% in the preceding month. But before the end of the month, it raised rates by 100 bps at an emergency meeting in an effort to secure IMF funds, citing a "slightly deteriorated inflation outlook".

In the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) that resulted from its talks with the IMF, Pakistan said it stands ready to consider further action at the next monetary policy committee meeting and subsequent ones until inflation and inflation expectations are on a clear downward path.

In a statement earlier today, the SBP announced that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on Monday to decide on key policy rates.

Sami Tariq, head of research at Pak-Qatar, said as a preemptive measure to control inflation arising out from an increase in administered utility prices of gas and electricity, the central bank would raise rates by 100 bps.

Most analysts believe the rate increase would be done largely to satisfy the IMF's criteria.

However, Shivaan Tandon, an economist at Capital Economics, said that the worst may now be over for Pakistan given inflation is likely to have peaked and the IMF funding is now secured.

Still, he added price pressures in the economy remain extremely elevated and policymakers would want to guard against the risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.

"We think the SBP will aim to suppress domestic demand through further monetary tightening to keep a lid on imports, contain the current account deficit and mitigate downward pressure on the currency," Tandon said.

However, the analysts who predicted no change in rates said there was no major change in price pressures since the last policy meeting to warrant a hike this month.

Mohammad Sohail, CEO at Topline, said the consumer price index, sensitive price index and the current account are all showing positive trends.