Ukraine war and future of BRI in Europe

There is no sign that the Ukraine war will end in the coming months or years. It is despite the fact that US President Donald Trump has pushed his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to make peace with Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

In order to strangulate the Russian economy, President Trump has urged Nato members to stop buying Russian oil and impose a 50-100% tariff on China for buying petrochemicals from Moscow.

“China and India are the primary funders of the ongoing war by continuing to purchase Russian oil, but inexcusably, even Nato countries have not cut off much Russian energy and Russian energy products, President Trump remarked during his speech at the United Nations General Assembly.

As far as China is concerned, it has significant trade volume with both the EU and Russia. In 2024, the total trade volume between Beijing and the EU reached approximately $565 billion and with Moscow to $245 billion.

Like many other regions, the struggling economies of Europe have also benefited from extending trade ties with Beijing. Therefore, accusations against China by President Trump have rung many alarm bells.

Is Washington aiming to drive a wedge between Europe and China as it did with the EU and Russia? And what is the future of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s main international cooperation and economic strategy, in Europe?

Currently, 29 countries in Europe, including 17 members of the European Union, have signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) with China. Among a total of almost 150 signatory countries, only Italy (December 2023) and Panama (February 2025) have made an exception by exiting it.

“China firmly opposes the US smear and sabotage of Belt and Road cooperation through the means of pressuring and coercion, and deeply regrets Panama’s decision not to renew the MoU on the Belt and Road Initiative, reacted a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman after issuing a similar statement for Italy.

It is an interesting fact that two months before leaving One Belt One Road, Italy joined the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This stage for an alternative to the “New Silk Road’’ was set in India, the only major country in South Asia that has so far refused to join the BRI.

The small and mountainous Bhutan, with a population of approximately 800,000 people, is another exception in this region. Thimphu’s decision to stay away from joining the BRI is meaningful as this landlocked country is nestled between India and China.

It is despite the fact that the Belt and Road Initiative is considered a win-win outreach by those who have embraced President Xi’s vision.

For critics, it comes with a grand design. To them, China’s move has all the hallmarks of setting up a new “multi-polar” world order.

Former US president Joe Biden had proposed that the then-British prime minister Boris Johnson come up with an alternative to the BRI.

“I suggested we should have, essentially, a similar initiative, pulling from the democratic states, helping those communities around the world that, in fact, need help,” Biden later informed the media.

For long, Beijing has been on Washington’s radar. Ukraine war, however, diverted the US attention as it started a few days after the Biden administration published its Indo-Pacific strategy.

Though Beijing is not helping Moscow militarily, some experts believe that it has much to gain if the war continues. The reason is obvious. Nato countries cannot wage a war on two major fronts. That too, when there is a danger of total annihilation.

So, European nations are in a fix. They had hardly recovered from the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic when they found themselves supporting the Ukraine war.

Now, they have to choose between development and security. Adjusting budgets to contribute to Nato is draining their resources and making governments ever more exposed to violent protests.

In many ways, it is a golden opportunity for China to economically strengthen ties with staunch allies of the United States and emerge as an economic superpower.

No surprise that only in the first half of 2025, Europe has witnessed a 2,145% increase in BRI investment. According to research conducted by Fudan University, Europe observed a total engagement of $3.5 billion.

So, it will be interesting to see how Washington convinces Europe that its involvement in the BRI will transform the so-called “economic competitor or a systemic rival” into an unchallengeable force.

At least for now, the United States has nothing more than rhetoric to convince EU members against China.

The Build Back Better World Initiative (B3W) launched by Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, has no comparison with BRI. Global Gateway Initiative (GGI) by Europe also lacks magnanimity, as does India's Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC).

This quagmire will only cement the bargaining position of those who have joined the BRI.

With that background, all eyes are set on President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, as they are expected to meet in November in South Korea.

Both leaders have avoided discussing Russia or Ukraine during their earlier telephone call, but it’s an issue that will bounce back sooner than later.

The moment this matter is raised, Washington would find an excuse to blame Beijing for being “the primary funders of the ongoing war’’ in Ukraine. Hence, face the repercussions.

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed in this piece are the writer's own and don't necessarily reflect Geo.tv's editorial policy.

The author is Controller News at Geo News. He posts on X at @NasimHaider2 and can be reached at [email protected]