US intel raises doubts over Iran deal ahead of talks

US intelligence has raised serious doubts inside US President Donald Trump's team over Iran's willingness to make nuclear concessions in any final deal, Axios reported, as mediators prepare to join the next phase of talks between Washington and Tehran.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe told Trump and senior officials that evidence gathered by US intelligence agencies cast doubt on Iran's intentions, according to Axios' Barak Ravid, while Vice President JD Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to meet Iranian officials on Friday along with Pakistani and Qatari mediators.

The report said Trump and his advisers held several high-level meetings before Sunday's announcement, during which they reviewed intelligence gathered by several US agencies.

According to the report, the intelligence suggested that Iranian officials' internal discussions about the deal were inconsistent with what they were telling mediators and Washington.

"The intelligence reflects that the Iranian intentions are not in line with their commitments under the deal," a source told Axios.

A White House official told Axios that Trump listens to all opinions but remains the final decision-maker. The official said the MOU meets the administration's red lines by seeking to ensure Iran cannot possess a nuclear weapon, keep highly enriched uranium or hold the world's energy supply hostage.

The nuclear elements of the MOU depend on the parties reaching a more detailed nuclear agreement over the next 60 days.

Vance, Witkoff and Kushner are expected to meet Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Friday, along with Pakistani and Qatari mediators, to discuss the next phase, according to Axios.

The report said the full text of the 14-point initial deal has not been published.

The deal is designed to extend the ceasefire and launch 60 days of negotiations, which can be extended by mutual consent. During those talks, Iran reiterates its past commitment to never acquire or procure a nuclear weapon.

A source familiar with the text told Axios that the US and Iran would seek to resolve the status of stockpiled enriched material and discuss future enrichment and other matters related to Iran's nuclear needs, based on a framework to be agreed in a final deal.

The report said Iran would maintain the status quo of its nuclear programme while negotiations continue, while the US would not impose new sanctions or deploy additional forces to the region.

If a final nuclear deal is reached, the US would remove the forces it mobilised for the war within 30 days and terminate sanctions against Iran under an agreed schedule, Axios reported, citing a source's description of the text.

Internal sceptics of the deal believe Iran is unlikely to sign a nuclear agreement on US terms and could benefit more than Washington from the MOU in the meantime.

However, senior US officials told reporters on Monday that any benefits for Iran would depend on it taking meaningful steps. One official said Washington would know within two to three weeks whether Tehran was serious about nuclear concessions.

Senator Lindsey Graham told Axios he was concerned that Iran's view of the agreement appeared different from what the US negotiating team was claiming, while calling for the document's immediate release.

MOU also calls for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen in the near term, with Iran using its best efforts to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels without charge for 60 days, while the US gradually lifts its blockade within 30 days.

The report added that the release of Iran's frozen funds remains one of the most contentious issues, with US officials describing the process as a "pay for performance" model.

Axios said any final deal would also include a plan for a $300 billion fund for Iran's reconstruction and economic development, along with a mechanism for its implementation.