PTI's 'new strategy' as Imran Khan completes two years in prison

Looks like the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has learned a learnt few lessons from its last protest march to Islamabad on November 26, 2024 — which ended in a fiasco and some unfortunate incidents. The new strategy seems to be different, as firstly, they have decided not to go to Islamabad, and secondly, the focus would be on Punjab. The counter strategy from the government's side would more or less be the same, i.e. not let them hold large-scale protests and arrest them in different cases, including those related to May 9.

To understand the situation around the PTI's protest strategy, I contacted the former ruling party’s Secretary General, Salman Akram Raja, till late night, but he texted me saying he can't speak due to back-to-back meetings. Meanwhile, the Punjab government’s spokesperson, Azma Bokhari, dropped a bombshell, claiming that the 'intelligence reports' warned about a situation similar to May 9. She hinted that 'free-hand' would not be given, and the law will take its own course. 

“We have reports of a repeat, or something close to May 9 [riots], and the Punjab government will not allow such protests. However, we won’t create a hindrance if they remain peaceful,” she told me.

Now, it is interesting to see whether such reports are based on any first-hand information or the government intends to use them to go all-out against the PTI.

Bukhari's statement indicated that PTI activists and leadership could be arrested. It will be quite a test for the party and its allies, as it has given a countrywide protest call for today, i.e. August 5, marking the completion of two years of their leader and former prime minister Imran Khan’s imprisonment.

While some of the leaders of the ruling coalition conceded that the PTI founder faced imprisonment with some determination, contrary to their expectations of him staying behind bars beyond a few weeks or months. In the last two years, all moves and strategies to get him out of jail have failed. While official quarters believe Khan wants to strike a 'deal' with the establishment, the party leadership rejected all such claims, asserting their belief that Khan is determined to face prison.

In the last two years, besides Khan, the PTI leaders who faced prison were the party’s former secretary general Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Ejaz Choudhry, Mahmood Rasheed, Sarfraz Cheema and cancer survivor Yasmeen Rashid.

While the PTI founder and the party still want to ‘negotiate’ only with the establishment, the latter’s cold response made things worse for him and the party. Khan's complete refusal to talk with the government, on the grounds that they hardly had any power, raised questions about the party’s game plan.

Sources said that Khan wants the party's Punjab leadership to stage a strong protest, as in the last two years, mostly leaders and workers from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa had taken to the streets. Apparently, he wants the party to do something in the line of KP and the unnerved government of Punjab led by Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz.

While the Punjab administration has clear instructions not to allow any such protest, and Section 144 CrPc has already been imposed, it would be a test for PTI’s change in leadership in the province.

But, differences within the party leadership over the strategy also raised eyebrows, as Khan has completed his two years in prison this time. Apparently, neither a breakthrough resulted in any relief for him nor any signal from the relevant quarters for talks so far. The negotiations held with the government team for a few months also ended after two rounds of dialogue. Following the 26th Constitutional Amendment, the chances of any major relief from the courts also seemed difficult, while the appeal against Khan’s conviction in the £190 million case is by far the last hope. But his own party's lawyers are not very optimistic about the present condition. The party’s internal rift also worsened the situation, and today’s protest would determine where the party stands as far as its new and changed protest ‘strategy’ is concerned, while they approach the ‘Battle for Punjab'.

In the last two weeks, convictions issued by the military courts of some of the top PTI leaders and over 100 workers in the May 9 case made things far more difficult for the party, as some MNAs, MPAs and senators, — including the leader of the opposition’s disqualification, even from the Punjab Assembly — had also put the PTI in a 'fix'.

Considering what the government and others are up to, with no sign of relief or possible negotiations, the party’s protest call from today will be quite a test of its strategy and what follows next.

The party’s last remaining hopes were pinned on Khan's two sons, Sulaiman and Kasim, whom supporters believed would come to Pakistan following the PTI founder's sister’s claim last month. But no reports suggest they would join the protest so far.

Like in the case of Muttahida Qaumi Movement-London (MQM-London) — which faced an undeclared ban after its founder's August 22, 2016, speech — the PTI is yet to come out from the consequences of May 9, as the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government has also drawn the strategy to crush any movement from the opposition.

The PTI’s hope of a large opposition alliance also failed to bring fruitful results, particularly after its failure to reach an agreement with Maulana Fazlur Rehman of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl. One of the main hindrances, apparently, is KP Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur, who had defeated Maulana in the elections as both come from the same constituency. The last serious negotiations between the two parties were held during the 26th Constitutional Amendment at Maulana Fazl's residence in Islamabad. Similarly, the party was unable to convince the Jamaat-e-Islami, which is known for street agitation and discipline. But it also did not seem much interested in joining hands with the PTI, despite the two working in coalition during the 2013 KP government.

So, one has to wait and see how the new strategy works out as party leadership would announce a new phase of protest either late tonight or tomorrow, i.e. Wednesday.

The sources close to the PTI revealed that Khan himself is not satisfied with the party leadership since his arrest, and what happened on November 26 last year, the protest led by his wife Bushra Bibi and KP CM Gandapur. The former has now taken a backseat, and serious questions have been raised about the KP chief minister from within the party.

The Punjab government has already issued an ‘alert’ and its spokesperson, Azma Bokhari, told me that the government has received ‘intelligence reports’ of violent protests like May 9. However, she also added: “The government can allow a protest if the opposition behaves.” 

For the first time since former premier Imran Khan was ousted from power in April 2022, the party has changed its strategy. Unlike in the past, where the main focus remained in KP, the PTI’s stronghold, where it has been ruling since 2013. The main battle seems to be in Punjab this time.

So, will they be successful in the ‘battle for Punjab’? Only time will tell, but failure is not an option for the PTI, while the PML-N government has taken all measures to prevent any large-scale protest in Punjab.

Khan has already been convicted in the Al-Qadir Trust case of £190 million, and his appeal is pending in the superior court. So far, he has not been charged in cases related to the May 9 riots, and one has to wait and see whether he will face a trial in the ‘military court’ and create history. Never before has any deposed prime minister faced the military court, including the former executed premier Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto.

Where will the political situation go from here? Even Khan and PTI’s biggest critics admit his popularity has not declined since the party, against all odds, surprised many by winning the February 8, 2024 elections. But, the party’s political approach and protest strategies have so far failed to yield any positive results.

However, at the same time, it is also not a win-win situation for the government of Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, given how long they could imprison Khan. Some independent observers believe that the military court trial of Imran Khan, if held, can draw international reaction from human rights bodies. On the other hand, the imprisoned premier could not get any relief even after the change of government in the United States, as the PTI leadership were quite hopeful after Donald Trump won the presidential elections.

The sources said internal differences within the party most likely further widened in case the party’s new strategy of focusing on Punjab also failed. The government, meanwhile, is still in two minds as far as bringing change in KP through a vote of no-confidence or by imposing the Governor's Rule, but some within the official quarters believe they did not have a problem with CM Gandapur, and he alone is a point of contention within the party.

Khan and the PTI's popularity is apparently intact as far as the voting trend is concerned, but Khan’s early release seems unlikely as the party is unable to display an impressive show of strength. Therefore, tough days are ahead for Khan and the party's leadership, while today is a big test for PTI and its new strategy. The PTI has certainly brought a new cadre in mainstream politics, particularly among the youth, but politics is the game of 'possibilities and opportunities'.

Mazhar Abbas is a columnist and analyst for Geo, Jang, and The News. He posts on X @MazharAbbasGEO

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