If Israel ousts Hamas, what plans do US, West have for post-war Palestine?

As Israeli forces intensify their assault against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, discussions are emerging about the potential scenarios for the aftermath if Hamas were to be removed from power.

These discussions involve diplomatic efforts at various levels, including Washington, the United Nations, and the Middle East region.

Some of the proposed options include deploying a multinational force to oversee post-conflict Gaza, establishing an interim Palestinian-led administration that excludes Hamas members, involving neighbouring Arab states in providing temporary security and governance, and even considering temporary UN supervision of the territory. 

These deliberations are still in the early, informal stages.

One of the critical questions at the forefront of these discussions is whether Israel can successfully dismantle Hamas, as it has vowed. 

Additionally, there is the question of whether the United States, its Western allies, and Arab governments would commit military personnel to act as a buffer between Israel and the Palestinians. 

This would mark a significant departure from previous reluctance to engage in such a role.

The situation on the ground is dire, with Gaza health authorities reporting a high death toll, hospitals overwhelmed, and thousands of Palestinians displaced. 

The Gaza Strip, home to 2.3 million people, is facing severe humanitarian challenges.

The ability of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to take control of Gaza in a post-Hamas scenario is uncertain. 

While the US Secretary of State has mentioned the possibility of a "revitalised" PA, the PA itself has faced issues related to corruption and mismanagement. The complexities of the situation make planning for the "day after" a challenging endeavour.

According to Reuters, any entity that seeks to exert authority in post-war Gaza would also have to contend with the impression among Palestinians that it is beholden to Israel. Its offensive against Hamas has been mounted in retaliation for a devastating October 7 rampage in which militants killed 1,400 people in southern Israel and took more than 200 hostages.

Even if Hamas' leadership is toppled, it would be all but impossible to eradicate pro-militant sentiment from the Gaza population, raising the threat of new attacks, including suicide bombings, against whoever assumes power.

"If the Israelis succeed in crushing Hamas, I think it’s going to be extremely difficult to get a governing structure in there that is going to be legitimate and functional," said Aaron David Miller, a former US Middle East negotiator.

"The 'day after' exercises right now strike me as fantastical," Miller said.

The discussions have increased as Israel expands its air, land and sea assault on Gaza, but they have also been driven by what US officials see as Israel's failure so far to articulate an endgame.

Massive aid to rebuild

There is a growing realisation that massive amounts of international aid will be needed to rebuild Gaza, and such an infusion would be nearly impossible to secure from Western governments with Hamas still in charge.

Moments before departing on Thursday on a trip to Israel and Jordan, Blinken said his meetings in the region would not only deal with "concrete steps" to minimise the harm to civilians in Gaza but also broach issues of post-war planning.

"We're focused on the day of. We also need to be focused on the day after," Blinken told reporters. The foundation for a lasting peace, he said, is a path toward eventual Palestinian statehood, a goal that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long resisted.

Lessons from Iraq, Afghanistan, Haiti

US officials have said privately that they and their Israeli counterparts have talked about learning the lessons from Washington’s missteps in its invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan and the lack of preparations for what followed.

Among the options that US officials have discussed is the creation of a multinational force to maintain order. Its composition could include some mix of European or Arab countries, though no government has openly expressed interest in joining such a force.

US President Joe Biden, who ended Washington’s two-decade military presence in Afghanistan in 2021, would be unlikely to want to get entangled in direct military action in a new foreign conflict as he seeks re-election in 2024.

Some policy analysts have also floated the idea of deploying to Gaza a United Nations-backed force - either a formal UN peacekeeping force, as it does on the Israel-Lebanon border, or a multinational force with UN approval.

But diplomats say there have been no discussions at the United Nations about such a move, which would require agreement among the 15 members of the UN Security Council.

Such missions often face major hurdles. In October 2022, Haiti asked for international help to fight violent gangs. A year later the UN Security Council authorised a foreign security mission, delayed by a struggle to find a country willing to lead it. Kenya stepped up, but Haiti is still waiting for the mission to arrive.

Complicating matters, Israel would likely oppose any UN security role, especially after Israeli officials castigated UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for saying the Hamas attack on October 7 "did not happen in a vacuum."

Israel expects a long war but says it has no interest in re-occupying Gaza.

Regional umbrella

Outside experts, some known at times to have the ear of US policymakers, are weighing in on what a post-war Gaza might look like.

If Hamas can be stripped of its "veto power" and Gaza is demilitarised, "that could open the way for establishment of an interim administration with a technocratic Palestinian-led government that operates under some kind of international and/or regional umbrella," said Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator and White House adviser.

The details, he said, would require complex US-led engagement with the Palestinian Authority and other major players with interests in stabilising the Middle East.

However, in order to make this work, Israel must limit the time frame for its military presence in Gaza or else any new governing body could lack legitimacy in the eyes of its people, said Ross.

An article authored by Ross and two of his colleagues at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy proposed that once Israel withdraws, security in Gaza be provided by a "consortium of the five Arab states who have reached peace agreements with Israel - Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco."

But there is some scepticism that such an arrangement could be struck.

"Arab states aren't going to put boots on the ground to kill Palestinians," said former negotiator Miller, now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.