Election Day 2025: What five critical races reveal about US politics

Voters across several states head to polls Tuesday, November 4, 2025 in a series of high-stakes elections that will serve as a pivotal early test of the national political climate.

Occurring in the first year of 47th President Donald Trump’s unprecedented second term, the results are being closely watched as a barometer for the 2026 midterms and a measure of the Democratic Party’s resilience after significant losses in 2024.

From gubernatorial battles in New Jersey and Virginia to a historic mayoral race in New York City, these contestants will offer key insights into voter sentiment on major issues such as economy, affordability, and the direction of both major parties.

New Jersey Governor

The candidates are:

• Rep. Mikie Sherril (Democratic): A former Navy helicopter pilot and current U.S. Representative.
  
• Jack Ciattarelli (Republican): A former state assemblyman making his third run for governor, he nearly upset Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021.
  

This electoral race in a traditionally blue state is a major photo finish. Ciattarelli has portrayed himself as a “Jersey guy” whose primary motives will be tackling rising taxes and utility costs, which have risen in the state. 

Sheril, on the other hand, has tied her opponent to President Trump, whose endorsement and recent cancellation of federal funding for the major Gateway Tunnel project have become prominent issues.

Trump’s improved performance in New Jersey in 2024 has given Republicans hope for an upset.

Virginia Governor

The candidates are:

• Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (Democratic): A former CIA officer and moderate congresswoman.
  
• Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (Republican): The incumbent lieutenant governor seeking to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin
  

According to polls, Spanberger is leading, however the race was rocked by a down-ballot race in the Attorney General position. 

Earle-Sears has also tirelessly associated Spanberger with Democratic AG candidate Jay Jones with regard to violent texts sent in 2022.

Spanberger has denounced the texts but has not pulled out her backing.

Earle-Sears has made "culture" one of the central parts of her campaign such as transgender policy in schools, whereas Spanberger has paid attention to the consequences of the Trump-era policies on the high number of federal employees in Virginia.

New York City Mayor

The candidates are:

• Zohran Mamdani (Democratic): A 34-year-old democratic socialist state legislator who won the Democratic primary.
  
• Andrew Cuomo (Independent): The former Governor of New York, coming back to politics after resigning in 2021.
• Curtis Silwa (Republican): The founder of the Guardian Angels, making his third mayoral run.

The race is a bellwether of the ideological disputes that have been going on inside the Democratic Party. Zohran Mamdani, who is the first Muslim and first millennial mayor of the city, has revitalized the progressive left. As an independent candidate, Cuomo is counting on a moderate coalition to lead his comeback. The results will be the indicator of the power of the socialist wing of the party and will set the agenda of the largest city in the country.

California’s Proposition 50

The vote on a ballot to permit the state legislature (implemented by Democrats) to create new congressional maps in 2026, 2028, and 2030 to bypass the efforts of the stated non-partisan redlines commission.

It is a direct political response to the action of Texas, in which Republicans have recently enacted a map likely to give them more seats in the U.S. House.

The enactment of Prop 50 will enable California Democrats to establish up to five additional left-leaning districts and the GOP would neutralize their national edge and a battle to control the House would be a fierce fight in 2026.

It is a significant political focus among Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Pennsylvania Supreme Court

Three Democratic justices are undergoing retention elections, which is a simple yes or no vote on whether they need to retain their positions after an additional 10 years.

The balance of power on the court in this critical presidential battleground is on the line. Democrats now have a majority of 5-2.

In case of non-retention of any of three justices, interim replacements would be made by Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro.

A change of the court composition may have far-reaching consequences on the 2028 presidential election, subsequent redlining, and critical decisions regarding matters like abortion and voting rights.

National Implications

These elections are being framed as referendums on both national parties by their opponents.

Democrats, led by DNC Chair Ken Martin, point to a string of special election victories as evidence of “wind at our back.”

Republicans, in their turn, claim that Democratic party is unpopular and the party is listed at no more than 30 years of the lowest approval ratings by Zach Parkinson, the Communications Director of RNC.

The outcome of Virginia and New Jersey will be disaggregated to provide hints on the sentiments of suburban voters and the race of the New York Mayor will signify how well the progressive message works.

Finally, the outcomes of Tuesday’s election will give the initial national hints on how U.S will politically proceed in the next two years.