'Trump effect' prices out of some US stocks

The US stock market gave a muted response to the overnight collapse in the US Senate of legislation to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, as earnings – including from Goldman Sachs and Netflix – took the market's focus on Tuesday.

Analysts say the knee-jerk reactions in stocks in the wake of President Donald Trump's election on November 8, fueled by the hopes for his agenda of cutting taxes, infrastructure spending and reducing regulations, have partly or fully unwound and investors are no longer pricing in any business-friendly legislation in 2017.

"The expectation for this administration to get anything passed is low. You had zero room for error on a (health care) bill that’s hard to get passed. The revelation isn’t shocking," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities in New York.

"It's hard to do a tax reform in the style that it was campaigned on. The healthcare hurdle pushes everything in Trump's agenda to 2018."

Stocks have continued to rise, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high last Friday. But several of the early stock winners of the Trump era have faded. Here is a look at four "Trump trades," how they fared in the aftermath of Trump's election in November and how that compares to their performance since he took office in January.

Obamacare Repeal & Replace

Barometer: Index of five hospital stocks (HCA Holdings (HCA.N), Tenet Healthcare (THC.N), Universal Health Services (UHS.N), Community Health Systems (CYH.N), LifePoint Health (LPNT.O))

Election to inauguration: -7.1 percent

Inauguration to present: +10 percent

President Trump's vow to immediately repeal the Affordable Care Act, which benefited hospitals by expanding insurance coverage, sent those stocks reeling.

The immediate repeal did not materialise and subsequent efforts to replace the legislation have failed. After two Republicans said on Monday they would not back the latest Obamacare rollback bill, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell threw in the towel and said he would schedule a vote in coming days on a two-year transition to simply repealing the 2010 health care law with no replacement.

A third Republican US senator on Tuesday said she could not back any legislation to repeal Obamacare without a replacement plan, effectively blocking McConnell's plan.

Infrastructure

Barometer: Index of six infrastructure-related stocks (Caterpillar (CAT.N), Terex (TEX.N), Vulcan Materials (VMC.N), AECOM (ACM.N), Granite Construction (GVA.N), Nucor (NUE.N))

Election to inauguration: +13 percent

Inauguration to present: -1.8 percent

Trump's vow to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure helped lead to a windfall for many investors in industries such as construction, engineering, building materials and steel in the immediate aftermath of the election.

The performance of the stocks has levelled off as infrastructure seems to be a non-urgent matter in Congress. Steel got a bump last week after Trump said he is considering quotas and tariffs to deal with the "big problem" of steel dumping from China and others.

Banks

Barometer: S&P 500 banks index

Election to inauguration: +20.8 percent

Inauguration to present: +6.2 percent

Perhaps no sector benefited as much from President Trump's election as banking in the immediate aftermath of his win. Optimism over his ability to roll back regulations boosted the group. Expectations that his agenda would stimulate the economy, promoting inflation and higher interest rates, also energised investors in banking stocks.

But the sector's gains have slowed under the weight of soft economic data -and importantly as inflation fails to pick up. Low inflation and a low neutral rate may leave the Federal Reserve with diminished leeway to keep raising rates, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last week.

Tax Cuts

Barometer: Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks

Election to inauguration: +12.6 percent

Inauguration to present: +5.9 percent

Trump's plan to cut taxes broadly and reform the tax code gave investors reason to be optimistic about US equities after his election, particularly investing in smaller companies that tend to be more domestically focused.

But the failure of the health care bill pushes the expectation of an 'as-promised' tax reform even lower.