Damming rhetoric, not rivers

A fallacious debate has resurfaced, advocating for damming rivers. This is more for political consumption to divert public anger from governance failure on the recent unprecedented flood in all three main rivers of Punjab (Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej).

Our collective short memory, coupled with land grabs for personal gain by the powerful elite, weak regulation and collusion among the powerful political elite, bureaucracy, and land developers, has allowed unchecked human settlements along natural river routes.

Moreover, for the past six to seven decades, public infrastructure planning has largely overlooked the historical water routes, compounding the scale of today’s disaster.

Similar factors caused the damage during the floods of 2010, 2022 and now again in 2025. Even small lessons from the 2010 disaster could have prevented much, if not all, of the current damages. Fifteen years on, however, those lessons have fallen on deaf ears and blind eyes. Instead of long-term planning, we continue to see ad-hoc measures, false solutions, poor forecasting and temporary actions.

Each disaster has followed the same pattern: in the aftermath, a flurry of discussion emerges — as it did in Sindh after 2010. Studies are commissioned, reports are produced and numerous deliberations are held, yet no meaningful long-term action is ever taken. Instead, a familiar chorus re-emerges, reviving the diversionary debate on damming rivers.

In the very interesting book ‘The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable', Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues that rare, unpredictable and high-impact events — called black swans — shape history and daily life far more than regular, predictable occurrences.

Humans are wired to underestimate the likelihood and consequences of these events due to cognitive biases, overreliance on models and the tendency to look for patterns in randomness.

The floods of 2010, 2022 and now 2025 stand as actual black swan events for Pakistan.

However, these events have not shaped our history. Yet our persistent bias toward a single solution — damming rivers — prevents us from thinking beyond this narrow horizon. In the process, water experts, engineers and policymakers have almost forgotten two certainties: rivers that run dry will eventually return and hill torrents will reclaim their paths. The 2025 flood and flash floods are a stark reminder that a black swan can strike even after a century of calm.

The Black Swan warns about prediction bias. In the last decade or so, many reports have predicted Pakistan as a water-scarce country by dividing average annual water by a fast-growing population. As the population rises, the per-person number always falls. This overlooks key factors, including seasonal variability, storage capacity, groundwater and management losses. It also overlooks that recent years have been extraordinarily wet.

Recent high flows occurred in the Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej rivers. Their geography does not allow for damming these rivers in the plain areas of Punjab; hence this pronouncement is completely out of context.

Here are a few of my submissions for the way forward:

This unprecedented situation demands out-of-the-box, long-term solutions; we cannot recycle the same arguments a decade and a half after the 2010 floods. No doubt, Pakistan needs to increase its water storage capacity to address the seasonal variability of flows and sustain its agriculture. But large dams are not the only answer — either for storage or for flood control.

Experience from many places shows this repeatedly; with climate-change-driven, erratic rainfall, dam operations can even become riskier. The geography of Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej does not allow for the damming of these rivers in the Punjab plains. So, the debate of damming is entirely out of context. Here are my proposals for the way forward: One, allow rivers to flow along their historical, natural routes so they can deliver nutrient-rich sediment and enrich exhausted soil after decades of agriculture. 

This will inject free fertiliser across the areas the water reaches. We should not oversell damming rivers as a silver bullet; it will not fix floodplain encroachment and urban drainage failure or hill torrent bursts. Where possible, restore flood bypasses through canals, let rivers spread safely without damaging settlements.

Two, initiate survey and mapping of existing human settlements in flood plains of all main rivers and along hill-torrent routes — even if they have been dry for a century. In the satellite era, this is not a major challenge. Prepare maps and classify areas into different zones using modelling based on historical river flows from peak to low, while incorporating today's unprecedented, climate-driven extremes.

Relocate people who fall within red zones. Strictly ban new settlements in floodplain areas.

Three, after the 2010 floods, the Sindh government conducted a study to identify natural water routes; these were clearly identified and mapped, but encroachments were not fully removed due to political reasons.

Other provinces did not learn from this; so many settlements in Punjab were flooded this time. Bold political decisions are now needed to clear all the encroachments — once and for all, but systematically and fairly.

Four, where feasible, develop small dams and levees for surface storage or as a temporary barrier to recharge groundwater, especially in Punjab, where many areas sit over freshwater aquifers. Although the energy needed to pump groundwater is high, Pakistan’s growing solar power capacity and other technological solutions can address this challenge.

Five, invest in better forecasting and early warning. Regional cooperation and transparent data sharing are critical, especially on transboundary rivers. Build forecasting capacity at multiple locations along the different river basins, and install modern equipment such as telemetry, rain/river gauges and weather radar) at key barrages and dams to monitor flows in real time and disseminate timely, clear alerts.

Effective transboundary river management requires a renewed focus on regional politics. Disasters such as the 2025 flood do not recognise national boundaries, making regional peace and cooperation essential.

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed in this piece are the writer's own and don't necessarily reflect Geo.tv's editorial policy.

The writer is an Islamabad-based environmental and human rights activist.

Originally published in The News