Testing time for PM Sharif

The next three weeks are crucial for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, as he has to take some important decisions including handling of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) threat to 'lock down' Federal Capital, politically or administratively, present himself before the Supreme Court over ‘Panama papers,' the appointment of a new army chief or giving an extension to the present chief General Raheel Sharif and the final drop scene of journalist Cyril Almieda's 'story' in DAWN.

All these decisions may not be directly linked with each other, but, some are. Prime Minister Sharif, who was recently re-elected as President of Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), must be feeling the political heat in the otherwise pleasant weather in Islamabad.

It’s not only the test of Sharif's political sagacity but also of his nerves and if he manages to overcome these crises and takes decisions, keeping the possible fallout, he can emerge as the most strongest Prime Ministers after Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto..

On the political front he will be facing tough resistance from the main opposition, PTI's  Imran Khan, who despite welcoming Supreme Court proceedings intends to stop government functioning from November 2, which means 'lockout' of government offices and blocking Ministers, Secretaries and other officials from going to offices.

Now, what will PTI do if the National Assembly and Senate also meet during these days? Will Parliamentarians or members of the ruling party and its coalition be allowed or not?

Imran has already made his intention very clear, that irrespective of the outcome of the Supreme Court, he will be making scores of 'Breaking News' and has also worked out the counter strategy in case the first tier of party leadership goes to jail, detained or placed under house arrest. Second and third tier leadership have also been constituted and intend to spread the agitation countrywide.

Imran would be putting himself in a very difficult position in case he did not get any major relief from the SC. Some PTI leaders suggest that he can still defer the Islamabad sit-in, while others believe that if thousands are sitting at D-Chowk or Shahra Dastoor, political pressure would be on the government, Parliament and other institutions.

However, all are sceptical about the fate of the movement if large scale violence spreads. 

It will also be a test for Imran and PTI's protest skills. Not many PTI leaders have experience of spending some time in jail. Imran himself has 48 hours experience of jail and hunger strike. Shah Mahmood Qureshi and those PTI leaders who in the past remained associated with PPP or Jamaat-e-Islami have gone through such experience.

Imran, who is now in a defiant mood has attacked PPP leadership as well and accused former President Asif Ali Zardar, stating he has been 'hand in gloves' with Sharif in alleged corruption. The PPP leader has assigned a special task to opposition leader, Syed Khursheed Shah to counter PTI's move.

PM Nawaz, now has two weeks to decided about the government's reply to the SC notice as well as to PTI's 'ultimatum.'

Government would be making a big political blunder in case it decides to detain Imran and other top PTI leaders as it could push some other opposition parties towards PTI, which at present distance themselves from Imran's street agitation. 

PM's statement on Thursday, welcoming SC order is of significance and also quite unprecedented since he is a main respondent. It also indicates that like in the case of Judicial Commission, Sharif has made himself mentally prepared for any outcome of the SC decision.

His statement has also put some moral pressure on Imran as well to defer his Islamabad siege plan till SC decision.                 

Another crucial decision which PM Sharif has to take in the next three weeks would be the appointment of the new army chief or giving extension to General Raheel Sharif, one of Pakistan's most popular Generals.

General Sharif, early this year, had dispelled all speculations by creating history of making an announcement nine months earlier that he would not seek extension and would retire on time i.e. by the end of November, 2016.    

There were no surprises when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif appointed General Raheel Sharif as the new army chief among the three senior most Generals. 

Some senior defiance analysts believe that one can expect a similar decision from the Prime Minister, to name among the senior most Generals as in the case of General Sharif.  

General Raheel's predecessor retired General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani got extension of one full term during PPP government. Kayani become the chief after retired General Pervez Musharraf had long tenure of almost nine years, both as President and army chief.  

Sources said another decision which the PM, has to take or is at least under pressure about is the outcome of the investigation about DAWN's Cyril Almeida's 'leak story.' While the government probe team is yet to submit its report to the PM, the 'other side' has completed its internal probe, but, awaits PM's decision. 

It may not be an easy decision for the PM to make particularly if some of 'government's men' are suspected. 

Army chief, General Raheel Sharif has already met the premier, at least three times since the 'leak.'

These are testing times for Sharif as he has been constantly under pressure from one leak to another, whether Panama or DAWN leak.

Political developments in the next three weeks would not only be the test for PM, his government, opposition, both inside and outside the Parliament, judiciary and the establishment.

There are indications that the government may negotiate with PPP over Bilawal Bhutto's Zardari's four points including appointment of full time Foreign Minister, accepting PPP's Panama Bill and on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Sources said there can be some 'give and take' on these demands.

While giving ultimatum to the government till December 27, when PPP would observe the death anniversary of former premier Benazir Bhutto, PPP Chairman knows much would have happened when his party would actually be launching its 'election campaign,' with the expected arrival of Mr Asif Ali Zardari.

So, let us all wait for the political outcome in the next three weeks and see whether there will there be continuity of the system by the end of November or some kind of 'tabdeeli.' 

The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.