The PML-N should be worried after NA-120

As far as media hype went, the recent by-election in the NA-120 constituency received the same kind of rolling TV coverage that national elections would. The hype didn’t already exist, it was built up - largely by the ruling party.

For the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz the by-polls were a matter of political existence or demise, or at least that is how they portrayed it. A defeat on September 17, could have spelt defeat in 2018.

On the day of the by-polls, leaders of the PML-N were visibly shaken.

Preliminary and unofficial results put Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf’s Yasmin Rashid in the lead. She was ahead by 2,000 votes, when I received a call from a federal minister. “This is not possible,” he said, “How can this be? Our blood pressure has shot up in the last one hour.” I am guessing his blood pressure finally settled, later that night, after Kulsoom Nawaz’s votes picked up, leading her to win.

From the start, the PML-N was a sure shot to win the polls in their home constituency. Yet, PTI gave it it's all. They needed a good showing in NA-120 to walk confidently into the 2018 general elections. PTI’s chief, Imran Khan, himself appeared for a gathering on the border of the constituency and also lead a rally to the Data Darbar.

According to official results, PTI polled six per cent less than in 2017 compared to 2013, while the PML-N polled 13 per cent less. Now, by-elections are usually uninteresting for voters, hence the turnout is below average. Both candidates witnessed a slump in their vote count slump, but there was a greater dent in the PML-N vote bank.

The PML-N’s tone even after the win has remained accusatory. It has dubbed the vote drop as a conspiracy by invisible forces. Maryam Nawaz Sharif, the party’s heir apparent, went so far as to claim that her workers were abducted a night before the polling. Others complain that banned organizations were allowed to organize themselves and contest the elections against Nawaz’s party. Banned organizations have become mainstream because they have been allowed the space to organize their political and charitable front. For that, the PML-N has only itself to blame. It should instead hold the Interior Ministers, both from its party, Chaudhry Nisar and Ahsan Iqbal, accountable.

If the PML-N truly believes that 12,000 of its voters were stopped from casting their ballot in NA-120, then that is a cause for concern. In the 2013 elections, there were 16 constituencies from where PML-N lost with a very narrow margin. Take, NA-104. Here Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain’s brother Chaudhry Wajahat Hussain lost to Nawaz’s party by a margin of only 3,800 votes. In NA-122 by-election, PML-N’s Ayaz Sadiq won with a lead of only 2,500 votes. In NA-164, PMLN’s Rai Mansab Ali won with 3,200 votes; NA-57 PML-N’s Sheikh Aftab Ahmed got 3, 900 votes more than the opposing candidate and in NA-41 PML-N’s Ghalib Khan won with a lead of 1,100.

The PML-N forayed into this election worried only about rival PTI. It should have been equally concerned about the banned organizations that formed political wings only last year, and yet managed to frazzle the ruling party.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Geo News or the Jang Group.