South Asia needs a peace deal

Human history is marked by conflicts that have often led to devastating wars. The two World Wars were products of such conflicts, causing the loss of millions of lives and immense suffering. It was only after these catastrophic events that the world recognised the need for a forum, where nations could engage in dialogue and resolve their disputes peacefully.

The League of Nations was the first attempt at creating such a platform, but it failed miserably to prevent further conflict, eventually leading to the outbreak of World War II. In its aftermath, the United Nations was established, envisioned as a more effective organisation. However, the UN has also struggled to address critical global issues.

The enormous cost of the two World Wars, primarily involving European powers, prompted a shift in approach. European countries chose to resolve their differences by forming the European Union, a political and economic alliance that continues to function effectively today. This model of cooperation inspired the creation of regional economic and social blocs worldwide, fostering collaboration across sectors such as trade, education and governance.

In the Muslim world, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) was formed with similar aspirations. Despite comprising powerful member states, including oil-rich Gulf nations, the OIC has been unable to play a meaningful role in resolving longstanding issues in the Muslim world.

The issue of Kashmir is still creating a lot of ripples and fissures in South Asia involving India and Pakistan. The recent limited war between the two nuclear states was again an unfortunate setback to the prosperity and development of the region. 

The terrorist act in Pahalgam was rightly condemned by Pakistan, which offered to conduct a transparent and neutral investigation through a third-party option, which India should have accepted. The Indian leadership was not wise enough to take a better approach to resolve the issues of mutual conflict. Instead, they opted to go for all-out war – and they paid a price for it owing to a befitting response from Pakistan.

It would not be out of place to mention here that Pakistan has already paid a heavy price for militancy and terrorism due to the two Afghan wars. The first between 1979 and 1990 proved disastrous for Pakistan. The second period, from 2001 to 2021, was after 9/11, for which Pakistan paid a heavy price of losses of about $150 billion and almost 85,000 people.

Pakistan and India have fought nearly four wars over Kashmir. Pakistani leaders continue to pledge a swift and decisive response to any Indian aggression or misadventure, as they have done in the past. 

They also raise concerns about the Modi-led Indian government’s alleged attempts to disrupt the flow of Indus waters – an issue with serious implications for regional stability. The cost of another war could extinguish hopes for peace and derail the dreams of people in both countries, who aspire to break free from the cycle of poverty.

There is no doubt that war, or even the threat of war, would significantly hamper economic growth and development goals. It is imperative to open all channels of communication between the two countries to reduce the chances of future conflict. Restoring full diplomatic relations would be a crucial first step in the right direction.

Both Pakistan and India are nuclear powers, and failure to resolve the Kashmir dispute poses a grave threat – not just to the region, but to global peace. A nuclear conflict could cause mass destruction and potentially cost billions of lives due to its long-lasting impact on the planet. World leaders must address this issue urgently before it escalates into a crisis for all of humanity.

Unfortunately, the conflict resolution mechanisms at the UN have proven weak. Without a stronger and more effective UN framework, the risk of a third world war cannot be ruled out. History bears witness to the catastrophic consequences of war in the Middle East, Europe, Africa and Asia.

Now, in the age of artificial intelligence (AI), a new danger has emerged: the militarisation of AI. Unlike human actors, AI does not recognise limits, and its use in warfare could pose an existential threat to humanity. World powers – especially the P5 members of the UN Security Council – must take this seriously and work towards resolving global conflicts.

If the current UN system fails to address urgent issues like Occupied Kashmir, then the world may need to consider establishing an alternative global dispute resolution mechanism to prevent future catastrophes. The turmoil is already here, and it demands immediate attention.

The Kashmir conflict is becoming increasingly dangerous, fueled by war-mongering rhetoric and aggressive slogans. The situation has further escalated with India’s move to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a critical agreement for Pakistan. Agriculture contributes nearly 23% to Pakistan’s GDP, making uninterrupted water access essential for its survival as an agrarian country.

Other regional countries must also step up and work together to resolve their disputes with India at the regional level. If India aspires to become a global power, it must adopt a more coherent, balanced, and responsible policy, especially regarding the Kashmir issue.

The people of both Pakistan and India cannot afford another war – neither emotionally nor economically. If war benefits no one, why is there such a loud and constant drumbeat of militarism from India? Any Indian incursion, whether limited or large-scale, would provoke a strong response from Pakistan.

As a nuclear-armed state, Pakistan has repeatedly emphasised that in the face of an existential threat, the nuclear option cannot be ruled out. Such an escalation would have catastrophic consequences for the entire region and beyond. History shows that wars may be planned, but once begun, they spiral out of control – especially when both sides are willing to go to any length.

Now is the time for full-scale diplomacy, not conflict. However, India appears focused on convincing the international community that Pakistan is solely to blame for regional instability and should be penalised accordingly. 

In reality, the situation is quite different. India’s increasingly aggressive posture and bullying behaviour toward its neighbours must be acknowledged and addressed. India needs to reconsider its approach and work toward peaceful coexistence, not provocation.

The conflict resolution mechanism at the international level must be strengthened, starting with the convening of a UN Security Council meeting. At the regional level, Saarc must also urgently help address and resolve disputes among member states.

South Asia is home to billions of people who would suffer immensely, both economically and physically, if current tensions were to escalate into war. This must be avoided at all costs. 

Sanity must prevail, and the leaders of Pakistan and India should engage in dialogue to resolve existing issues rather than create new ones, such as the recent water dispute that threatens to become another flashpoint. Pakistan has already declared that any attempt to block its river waters or violate the IWT would be considered an act of war.

The human cost of war is far greater than commonly imagined. War brings with it economic collapse, social chaos, and widespread poverty. It should be avoided at all costs to protect humanity from further suffering. 

The essential questions remain: why do wars start, and what are the most effective mechanisms for resolving conflict and preventing war? Is lasting peace in South Asia, especially between India and Pakistan, truly possible? The answer must be yes.

History is filled with examples of human conflict, from primitive warfare to modern battles. Yet the lesson is always the same: war solves nothing. It disrupts economies, fractures societies and leaves behind long-lasting trauma. Wars have never brought lasting benefits to any nation involved; they only deepen divisions and destroy progress.

Peace must be the ultimate goal – essential for development, prosperity and the wellbeing of all people in South Asia. US President Donald Trump frequently speaks of resolving disputes through deals, whether in trade, tariffs or diplomacy. 

Taking inspiration from that approach, South Asia urgently needs a ‘peace deal’, not another confrontation. The consequences of a nuclear war would be catastrophic, potentially setting the region back to the Stone Age.

It is imperative that regional leaders and the UN focus on resolving all outstanding disputes between India and Pakistan, including the long-standing Kashmir issue and the newly emerging water conflict. Only through diplomacy, mutual respect and dialogue can the region hope to achieve lasting peace and shared prosperity.

The writer is a former additional secretary and can be reached at: [email protected]

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed in this piece are the writer's own and don't necessarily reflect Geo.tv's editorial policy.

Originally published in The News