Atlantis in the making

Nature does not exist in isolation. It has an intrinsic relationship with how we treat it. If we extend it the dignity it deserves, it responds in kind. Treat it with contempt and it wreaks vengeance with unparalleled fury.

Subsidence is the gradual sinking of the land surface. Apart from geological effects, major causes of urban subsidence include groundwater extraction, construction, and soil consolidation. Worldwide, 77% of subsidence is caused by humans. At 60 %, groundwater extraction is the major cause.

Southeast Asian cities have the most rapid subsidence. Different studies, including one by Singapore's Nanyang Technological University (NTU), find that since 2014, Karachi has been sinking at an annual average of 0.01 to 15.7 centimetres. Landhi, leading the subsidence race, is sinking at an average of 15.7 cm per year.

With a non-existent municipal water system, Karachi's nearly 30 million people are reliant on underground aquifers. The main source is the rampant tanker mafia. Studies show that unchecked extraction has led to the megapolis's water-table depletion by 1-3 metres per year.

The NTU says this leaves Karachi increasingly prone to severe floods, sea intrusion and even earthquakes in areas where tectonic plates are located. The recent spate of tremors sounded the unheeded warning bell. Tellingly, the concentration of seismic activity was along the Landhi Fault Line.

The Forbes Adviser List ranks Karachi as the world's fourth-highest infrastructure security risk. Reasons include unplanned urbanisation, non-existent zoning and implementation of building codes, dilapidated buildings, encroached-upon drainage systems, and groundwater extraction. Sea-warming and freak weather cycles add to the lethal cauldron.

Karachi’s alarming subsidence mirrors that of Jakarta, Indonesia's capital. A Geoforum study found that unplanned urbanisation, benefiting a patronised cabal, has contributed to the virtual sinking of Jakarta. Its towering buildings rest on what were once green areas.

Reckless groundwater extraction has resulted in Jakarta’s subsidence of over 17cm annually. By 2050, the city shall be fully submerged. The Indonesian government is relocating the capital to Nusantara, a $35 billion city in the jungles of East Kalimantan on the island of Borneo.

In a February 2015 parliamentary briefing Dr Asif Inam, chief of the National Institute of Oceanography, warned that Thatta and Badin would drown by 2050, while 2060 would dawn on a totally submerged Karachi. This was followed by a letter to the then-PM Nawaz Sharif from the Chairman of the Senate Standing Committee on Science and Technology. It carried a set of recommendations urging top-priority action. A decade has passed. Ignorance, our ruling dispensation espouses, is bliss.

Mangrove forests are nature’s strongest barriers against climate change and coastal erosion. According to the WWF, over the last 15 years, 200 hectares of these remarkable mangrove woodlands have been cleared to make way for housing and commercial structures.

Another compounding factor is the removal of eight billion cubic feet of sand and gravel from Karachi’s seashores and seasonal rivers each year, illegally, to be used in the building industry.

There has been absolutely no political will to rein in Karachi’s rapacious mafias. The recent budget is touted as one that integrates Climate Budget Tagging, with 8.2% of PSDP earmarked for climate action. Apart from introducing a carbon levy, it has also allocated 85.43 billion rupees for climate adaptation and reviving the Green Pakistan Program.

The 18th Amendment mandated free and compulsory education for our children. Fifteen years on, it remains a pipe dream. An ignominy, ranked second highest globally, we have 26 million out-of-school children. How can one expect our budgetary confabulation to fare better? The construction sector accounts for 23% air pollution, 40% of drinking water contamination and 50% of landfill garbage. Here, the brick-and-mortar mindset reigns supreme. Larger the behemoth, shriller are the vainglorious public-paid advertisements.

A multi-pronged, eco-friendly national strategy needs to be devised. Karachi's subsidence-prone areas should be monitored regularly through Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, which uses radar images to measure surface topography and ground deformation. Multistorey structures should be subjected to the strict implementation of building codes.

We have to reduce water extraction and replenish groundwater tables. According to NDMA figures, rainfall has increased by an average of 189% across the country. In Sindh and Balochistan, the increase is a staggering 462% and 435% respectively.

Sponge cities with wetlands, ponds, and green spaces can utilise this rainwater, which otherwise poses an increasing menace to life and property. Concrete pavements and pathways should be replaced by permeable tracks that act as soakaways to filter rainwater into groundwater basins. Groundwater extraction should be banned in high-risk areas.

Karachi’s encroached-upon and littered drainage system should be restored. Crucially, the climate-resilient expansion of Karachi towards Nooriabad and Hyderabad should be encouraged and incentivised, but under strict regulations of a cohesive plan.

The highly anticipated Gwadar Port is a key component of CPEC. Although officially operational, it remains dormant. Providing the necessary infrastructure and working towards political cohesion to allay security concerns is imperative for making Gwadar a hub of commercial activity. This will go a long way in relieving the burden on the creaking-at-the-seams Karachi.

A former minister for climate change and environmental coordination decried this year’s budgetary cut of the Climate Change Ministry. Sindh, ruled by her party for the last 17 years, remains a neglected province. Karachi’s woes fail to blip on the administrative radar.

The 2022 catastrophic floods killed 1737 in Sindh, displaced eight million and inflicted economic losses worth nearly $40 billion. Oblivious to the suffering and tragedy of the subjects, nothing has been done to prevent or mitigate the damage in case of another deluge.

The mythical tale of Atlantis, immortalised by Plato, plays out with a bustling city confined to the bottom of the ocean. An ominous reality, Karachi is an Atlantis in the making. It calls for immediate reckoning, starting with the culmination of the criminal stupor that has enabled it.

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed in this piece are the writer's own and don't necessarily reflect Geo.tv's editorial policy.

The writer is a freelance contributor. He can be reached at: [email protected]

Originally published in The News