No regulation, just speculation

In every civilisation’s rise, land is not merely soil; it is sovereignty, security, and the stage upon which nations write their destiny. In Pakistan, however, the ground beneath our feet has been reduced to a casino floor. 

Where other nations govern land with discipline, we allow it to sprawl in disorder; where they see homes as dignity, we treat them as chips in a speculative game. Our cities expand like unplanned storms rather than deliberate visions. The time for reform has arrived – long overdue.

Pakistan’s real estate economy is vast. Punjab alone sees 600,000 annual transactions worth Rs1.6 trillion, yet public revenue is throttled by obsolete DC valuations that sit five to ten times below market value. Registry taxes at 8.0% punish honesty, rewarding only evasion. 

Buyers face CVT, stamp duties, and registration fees; sellers pay withholding and capital gains taxes; together, these levies can devour 8–12% of a property’s value, all without delivering transparency or efficiency. A modern system for instance, 2.0% market-linked levies verified by AI-driven valuation will swell coffers, lower costs and build trust.

Withholding tax (WHT) formed a substantial share of federal revenue: In FY2024-25, the FBR raised Rs235 billion from property-related WHT under sections 236C and 236K. This is a vital stream that should be linked to transparent and fair-value taxation, not obscured behind outdated DC valuations. 

Yet even policymakers cannot verify these figures in real time. Pakistan lacks a digital registry that displays transactions, values and taxes in a searchable public dashboard, like those in London or HM Land Registry in the UK.

This is a breach of accountability. Without mechanisms for transparent, real-time reporting of every land sale and its tax incidence, the public cannot know what properties are transacted, what prices were paid and whether taxes were duly remitted.

The collapse of confidence in Pakistan’s real estate market is further exposed by recent legal crises and echoed across unregulated schemes, which survive on customer advance payments, vanishing when disputes arise or work stalls. 

The speculative trade in undeveloped plots is a slow bleed on the nation’s economy. The damage extends beyond balance sheets: forests levelled, farmland erased, ecosystems dismantled.

The dream of homeownership must no longer be a trap for the innocent end-users. A strong Real Estate Regulatory Authority must ban speculative plot sales, require delivery of completed homes or apartments and redirect investment toward sectors that generate jobs, production and sustainable growth. Without urgent reform, speculation will keep hollowing out our economy, scarring our landscapes and stealing our future.

The world offers examples. Dubai’s RERA consolidated a fractured sector under skilled regulation and rebuilt confidence by enforcing escrow protection, licensing developers and an integrated digitising land registry. With that clarity and confidence, Dubai attracted billions of dollars in FDI.

Another important aspect: urban planning, the backbone of sustainable development, lies in tatters. For instance, Islamabad’s master plan, conceived in the 1960s, is as obsolete as a vintage car navigating modern highways. Karachi and Lahore limp under outdated frameworks unfit for their rapidly increasing populations. 

These cities demand new master plans, crafted in collaboration with the world’s foremost urban and architectural firms, integrating climate resilience, transit efficiency, energy planning and smart infrastructure.

The deeper crisis is structural. At the provincial level, for instance, Lahore’s real estate governance is fractured between LDA, DHA, cantonment boards, civil defence, EPA, WASA, traffic police, excise, utilities and municipal bodies – each with its own rules, none accountable to the whole. 

The remedy is PUREA: Punjab’s Unified Real Estate Authority – a single, AI-powered, blockchain-secured, NADRA-verified, one-window portal merging all regulatory, utility, safety, taxation and registry functions. 

This would replace DC rates with market-based valuation, rationalise stamp duty to 2.0% with tiered slabs, and slash compliance time from 120 days to a couple of days. AI oversight would automate clearances, flag anomalies and harmonise jurisdiction.

Nationally, the same clarity must come through PRERA – the Pakistan Real Estate Regulatory Authority – unifying bylaws, licensing developers, accrediting agents, auditing housing schemes and banning speculative plot sales. 

No project should launch without 30% equity locked in escrow. Estate agents must be trained, licensed and bound by ethical codes. Housing must be delivered as complete communities, not empty files traded like poker cards.

Beyond revitalising existing cities, Pakistan must dare to build new self-contained urban zones of five square kilometres, developed not as speculative plots but as real homes for real communities. In its 78-year history, Pakistan has only developed three new cities: Islamabad, Quaidabad and Joharabad.

Pakistan’s 10 million-strong diaspora remits over $38 billion a year – capital ready to build cities, industries and futures – yet it is deterred by opacity and chaos. 

Under SIFC frameworks, with GCC investment and diaspora funds channelled through Roshan Digital Accounts, we can finance new master-planned cities, integrate climate resilience and revive our urban cores.

By aligning Pakistan’s real estate with global standards, we can unlock billions in FDI, mirroring Dubai’s success. In the UAE, the UK, and India, real estate drives prosperity because it is governed, not grabbed. Availability of credit to both the developer and the mortgage to the end user is another major issue. 

For the last three decades, the government-backed schemes of soft loans for affordable houses yielded few results. The distribution of credit must be through banks and other regulated financial institutions.

We are standing at a crossroads. We can continue selling illusions or we can transform it into a foundation of sovereignty, security and shared prosperity. The choice is clear: build homes, not fantasies. This requires an enabling environment – one where law is the rule, not an afterthought.

For policymakers and the government, this is a blueprint. Establish PRERA to centralise governance. Enforce a Unified Land Registry Portal to digitise and democratise transactions. Ban speculative plot sales and mandate escrow accounts. 

Commission new master plans for Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad, and build new cities under SIFC frameworks. Leverage diaspora remittances and GCC investment to fund sustainable development. Emulate the regulatory clarity of Dubai, the ethical standards of the UK, and the inclusive reforms of India.

The moment for transformation is now. Let us choose to govern the ground we stand on, so that our children inherit a nation standing firmly on its own soil.

The writer is a political economist, public policy commentator and advocate for principled leadership and regional cooperation across the Muslim world.

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed in this piece are the writer's own and don't necessarily reflect Geo.tv's editorial policy.

Originally published in The News