FIFA World Cup 2026: Which team has highest odds to win trophy?

As the 2026 FIFA World Cup is about to start on June 11, the experts are predicting which team has the highest chances of lifting the trophy on July 19.

The event is jointly hosted by Canada, Mexico, and the United States with a 104-match tournament, featuring an expanded 48-team format.

The strongest contenders of the tournament are Spain and France, which not only are fan favourites but also have a strong history. France reached the final in 2022 (lost on penalties) and won the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League. Spain stays dominant due to its Euro 2024 win, in which the team beat top-tier competition.

Both European teams possess +475 odds, with major teams such as Argentina, England, and Brazil sitting at +900, +650, and +850.

Historical records reveal that Brazil is the most successful nation in World Cup history, possessing 5 titles, followed by Germany and Italy with 4 titles each. In the tournament history, Brazil also holds the highest number of match wins and total points in tournament history.

Despite a good record, Brazil has failed to reach the World Cup final since 2002, marking a 24-year drought.

The stats say the World Cup champ is likely to be from Europe or South America. Only these areas have ever won in the 96-year span of the tournament. This cuts out Morocco and the three host countries right off the bat.

To narrow it down further, no Euro team has won the prize without multiple Ballon d'Or winners. So, Belgium, Croatia, Norway, Switzerland, and Turkey are out too.

With all these historical filters applied, only five competitors are left, including Argentina, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain.

New FIFA World Cup format changes the math

In 2026, the FIFA World Cup featured 48 teams for the first time, raising the total from 32. The group stage now consists of 12 groups of four teams each, with the top two from each group advancing, along with the eight best third-place finishers. This indicates that only 32 nations will reach the knockout stage.

The tournament’s first match is on June 11, when Mexico faces South Africa at Mexico City’s Estadio Azteca.