Can Imran 'siege' the capital?

Imran Khan has set some new trends in politics and still has the capacity to attract big crowds, but what he perhaps still lacks is the strategy and means to success. He has now announced the 'final with Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, when he threatened to 'siege Islamabad,' the federal capital.

What will all this lead to is not difficult to predict, but much can happen this month for either side. As I had written earlier, confrontation looks imminent, but is Imran's 'Tiger Force' really prepared and ready for all this?

Imran's intention looks quite clear. He wants to 'siege Islamabad,' which can be in both ways: closing all roads, or through disruption, something close to the August 30th, 2014 attack on Parliament and Supreme Court.

It was a big show but not as big as PTI's October 30th, 2011 or December 25th, 2012, irrespective of what young and dynamic PTI leader Faisal Javed says from the stage. In politics you have a right to make tall claims for motivation. Nevertheless, what was good was that it ended well and peacefully without any hindrance, for which credit goes to both the administration and the PTI.

One thing which I noticed in the jalsa was large participation of Pashtuns living in Punjab. Interestingly, Imran is attracting Pashtuns in particular in every city. In the last few meetings there has been a considerable decline in women's participation, maybe because of frequent unpleasant incidents.

Arrangements on Friday were much better, but still the fear factor kept large numbers of PTI women supporters away from the venue.  

Much can now happen between Oct 1st to Oct 30th, and tension at the LoC can even block all political activities and calls of agitation. But that does not mean complete silence on the final outcome of ' Panama papers.'

For PTI, it will be a debut for its ' agitation,' which can include the violent factor too. So far, its public meetings, rallies and dharnas, have been dominated by colorful program, full of glamour and introducing new trends in politics, new voters, youth and women in the mainstream. Now the PTI leadership and workers are fully charged and ready for agitation too, which can take them to jail as well. The young lot can take a few training courses from Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad, veteran of many agitations.  

There will be pressure on PTI, as in the last dharna workers of Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) took the lead in the attack on Parliament and PTV.

Irrespective of how Imran will manage and execute the plan, it’s a 'serious threat', like a do-or-die situation for the PTI chairman. The possible consequences depend on how much crowd he would be able to draw, as this time it would neither be a 'dharna' or 'jalsa,' but pure a confrontation and clash.

What is Imran really aiming for in between Sept 30th to 0ct 30th?

Perhaps, a situation like 2009, when Nawaz Sharif led the long march from Lahore to Islamabad for restoration of deposed judges and after government was warned by the establishment of possible siege, PPP government agreed on restoration and  former army chief, retired General Kayani became the guarantor that if judges are restored Sharif would return.

In 2014, when dharna was at its peak, General Raheel Sharif was asked to intervene but he did not support Imran-Qadri demand of PM's resignation before Judicial Commission's findings.

It’s a different and more alarming situation now as Imran wants 'verdict' in his favour over 'Panama,' fully convinced he has evidence against Sharif's alleged corruption. For the first time he even tried to convince the people like a teacher, which certainly was a different style of politics. 

So, what he is apparently looking for: (1) verdict on Sharif (2) his resignation, which can pave way for early elections, and (3) army as guarantor during all these developments like it happened in 2009 and 2014.

Army on the other hand is too busy on Eastern and Western borders, operation 'Zarb-e-Azb,' and in this scenario would not like to see, 'siege of Islamabad,' or any political confrontation.

As for as the government, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif would not resign particularly under Imran's pressure as it would mean, 'burial of his politics.' He would like to see the outcome of Supreme Court verdict as well as Election Commission's decision on Imran Khan's disqualification.

It is difficult to say at this stage that we are heading for a 1977 or 1993 like situation. The government can move the Supreme Court against PTI's pressure tactic while Imran is already pressing for 'day to day hearing' in the SC.

The SC decision can bring an end to this crisis and possible end to this major conflict between government and main opposition. If Sharif loses this can lead to early elections but if Imran loses, he will lose any justification for Islamabad march.    

October, in Pakistani politics, always has its own significance and is the month when the first Martial Law was also imposed. What will happen this October? If nothing else, it may end the suspense on "Panama papers,' in favor of either side.  

Imran and his team are now in a mood to push Sharif in a position where his government could either fall or he himself is forced to resign. He hinted towards a situation like what happened in Iran or Egypt. He had even mentioned the two uprisings, against Shah of Iran in 1979 and against Hosni Mubarak during the Arab spring. One wonders whether he has really studied the two uprisings or not. 

He also wants to build the pressure on both Election Commission of Pakistan and even on the Supreme Court, which will be hearing petitions on Prime Minister's disqualification and over Panama papers. The SC hearing is of utmost importance but in some of his interviews the PTI leader was not very confident of the possible outcome and was critical of the Judicial Commission findings on election rigging.

Interestingly, even by threatening to close Islamabad, PTI is not ready to quit the Assemblies or dissolving its government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — some of the pre-requisites, if you really want to go all out against Sharifs.

Before giving the deadline on Friday, he did discuss with his core team and the only ally, Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad. No wonder, before his announcement both Ahmad and Shah Mahmood Qureshi hinted towards the 'final call.'

"I will announce the date after Muharrum, and we will close Islamabad." So, what possible deadline can he give? Some leaders told me it could be between October 25 and 30th. 

There is a possibility that he may review the decision, if things really get bad at the Line of Control, but, what would he do in case the Supreme Court starts hearing the petition  

On Friday, he looked very determined and confident too and was certainly keeping the government on its toe. The next election will be a real test for PML-N, and they know PTI will be giving tough time to them. But, election is altogether a different science in which PML-N is far more experienced than PTI, which is still facing serious organisational problems.

However, he has not only put government in yet another test, perhaps, the toughest, if it leads to direct clash, but also for the other opposition parties for whom the PTI leader left no other choice but either to choose 'him or Sharif.'

This is what Imran is always known for, even during the days of cricket where he picked his own team, played according to his game plan and took the credit of win or accepted defeat. In many ways he is not a team man but always has the confidence to lead.

But, politics is all together a different game, where strategy, timing and opportunities are very important. I believe veteran Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad has a lot to do with Imran's deadline as "Farzand-e-Rawalpindi" knows that Imran could be the loser if he goes in the legal battle as it may give the government an upper hand. Therefore, he talks of 'blood' in this movement. 

Ahmad, the veteran of the movement against Ayub Khan and Bhutto, perhaps, has convinced Imran that if Sharif succeeded in completing his term and elections were held in 2018, Imran stands little chance of forming the government at the center.

Imran, traditionally likes 'fighters' not strategist and that is one of the reasons why he often launched movements without day to day strategy before him. He often took decisions on his own and then shared with party core committee.

There is no doubt that he is still a crowd puller, but, for the first time he has asked his workers whether they are ready for more aggression, meaning 'agitation'. Now, who knows better than his friend, Mr Ahmad, that agitation need proper planning and organisation.

The mood in Lahore on Friday was mixed, but, more importantly, both PTI and the administration handled the situation well. There were no blockades to prevent people from coming to the rally at Raiwind. PTI workers also showed political maturity and did not create any provocative situation. 

I was in Lahore, and witnessed the 'big show,' though, not as big as announced from the stage i.e. around 12 lakhs. It was not even close to October 30th, 2011 or on December 25th, 2012. But, he certainly seems to be in control of differences within the party and all of them were on stage.

"This is a step to revive the memories of Oct. 30th,” said one PTI local leader. 

While in other parts of Lahore, business was as usual, there was lot of festivity around Raiwind, some 27 kilometers from Mall Road, the heart of Lahore.

Whether Imran will win or lose in his movement, he has made 'corruption' the main issue in the coming elections. How Sharifs can counter this move would be interesting to watch as all eyes are on the Supreme Court.

               

The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.