'Change of face' or 'strategy' in KP?

Now the question of the town is: how different will Sohail Afridi prove to be from Ali Amin Gandapur in the current volatile landscape of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP)? Will his rise mark just a change of face or a genuine shift in strategy? The answer should unfold in the coming weeks, but one thing is clear — the smooth transition of power suggests that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) popularity in the province remains firm.

Afridi, the youngest chief minister in KP’s history and hailing from the tribal belt, is PTI’s fourth CM since 2013. His appointment is not only a test for the young provincial chief executive but also for the party’s founder and former prime minister, Imran Khan. This comes at a time when tensions along the Afghan border are again running high and terrorist attacks inside the province are picking up.

The real test for Afridi will be how he deals with these issues from militancy and law and order to his working relationship with Islamabad and the military, and whether he can bring some order to governance in the province. More crucially, can he chart a new course that his predecessor could not, particularly as the party seeks ways to secure its founder’s release from prison? So, it may not be a million-dollar one, but the question remains: What, indeed, does Imran expect from this young protégé who now carries the party’s hopes in KP?

More so, it was, to a good measure, reassuring to see the former firebrand chief minister not only show up at the provincial assembly session but also pledge his support to his even fierier successor, in a show of party unity. In line with political buzz, the opposition — PML-N, PPP, and JUI-F — could not find a common ground, while the ANP stayed out of the race. Lacking numbers and consensus, they could not challenge Afridi and now plan to take the matter to court.

As expected, the newly elected chief minister made an emotional speech. The real question now is whether he will start his tenure by taking a confrontational line with the centre over Imran Khan’s release, or focus on governance and the growing threat of terrorism.

Coming from the troubled tribal belt, Afridi faces another major test: how much relief he can bring to his own region. His first speech gave mixed signals: whether he plans to take an aggressive approach right away or keep his tone measured, only time will tell.

Pakistan’s recent military action inside Afghanistan, targeting alleged terrorist camps of the defunct Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its proxies in response to rising attacks on security forces clearly showed that Islamabad and Rawalpindi is firm in their strategy. This stance was also underlined during the recent press conference of the DG ISPR in Peshawar. For Afridi, the challenge now will be how to handle this situation, though it seems clear that he will strictly follow his leader’s line — unlike Gandapur, who at times took a different approach, even while insisting that his actions were in line with Imran Khan’s strategy.

Afridi is expected to deliver a policy statement after his first meeting with his leader at Adiala jail in one or two days, but one thing is certain: Imran’s sister Aleema Khan would have more say in KP’s affairs than she had during Gandapur’s government.

Imran has a reputation as an aggressive leader since his cricketing days, and he always likes his party leaders to follow the same. However, his experience with some of his decisions is quite contradictory, even in the case of picking chief executives, whether it was Pervez Khattak in 2013, Mahmood Khan in 2018, or even Usman Buzdar in Punjab. Khattak, though no longer in PTI, was by far the most successful, as he not only completed his full term as CM between 2013 and 2018 while leading a coalition with Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), but also helped PTI grow from a simple majority to a two-thirds majority in the next election. Many expected him to continue, but Khan replaced him with Mahmood — a decision that surprised even senior party members.

In the post–May 9 scenario, Mahmood distanced himself from PTI, and Gandapur emerged as a surprise pick, preferred over several other contenders. Things seemed fine until the November 24, 2024, long march to Islamabad, when Gandapur came under fire after clashes with law enforcement agencies and reports of PTI activists being killed. The then CM allegedly left the scene, triggering backlash from within the party. His silence over the incidents in Islamabad further deepened the criticism, and many believe that his differences with Imran’s sister, Aleema Khan, eventually cost him the chief minister’s office.

Arguably the most populist party in Pakistan by all means in KP, the PTI created a record in 2018, when for the first time in KP’s political history any party, not merely retained its position but also got a two-thirds majority, which in itself was a record, and its popularity continued in 2024 when it completed a hat-trick. Its popularity caused a serious dent in almost all parties challenging PTI, including PML-N, PPP, JUI-F, ANP, and even JI.

Though it is true that in the 2013 elections it was ANP and PPP that came under direct attack from TTP, and many of their leaders and workers were assassinated, that election was no doubt the bloodiest. The challenge PTI faced post-2018 was the rise of a new group, the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) led by Manzoor Pashteen.

PTI’s success in KP has largely rested on two or three key factors, including the Health or Sehat Card initiative and Imran Khan’s anti-operation stance in the troubled tribal areas, a policy that, indirectly, also aligned with the interests of the TTP and its proxies. Criticism of PTI or Imran over handling the operations is not entirely fair, as such decisions have historically been influenced or dictated by the military. Many of Imran’s moves followed policies set by former army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa or former ISI chief General Faiz Hameed.

Unlike Khattak and Mahmood, the successors, Gandapur and now Afridi, took office at a time when the PTI-establishment relationship was on the brink.

Under these circumstances, Afridi may act more as a party leader than as chief minister, which could further complicate governance in KP.

With Imran’s popular base still intact, Afridi is likely to take an aggressive stance regardless of the outcome. How the federal government and the establishment respond will also be a significant challenge.

Overall, political uncertainty is likely to continue. One cannot rule out further terrorist attacks in Pakistan, and counter-strikes may persist. Where the province and the party go from here will depend on Afridi’s policies. His inaugural address suggested that another long march to Islamabad may be in the offing. Clearly, all is not well, but how and when it will end remains a big question.

The writer is a journalist and columnist for GEO, The News and Jang.

X:@MazharAbbasGEO