US-Iran war and my 'scoop of the century'

Twice in my life, I have regretted witnessing my own assessment of an international situation coming true.

In the latest case, for making a "scoop of the century."

On February 24, 2026, I made the most unpredictable assessment of my lifetime. It got published on the very website you are reading now.

The story was written under the title, ‘If US attacks Iran, what day will President Trump opt for?’

Two days later, on Thursday, the United States of America and Iran had to continue their talks in Geneva under the mediation of Oman. No one knew it would be the last round.

As President Trump interacted with the media, a reporter asked how close he was to making a decision regarding a military strike against Iran?

I won’t say. If you could find out, it would be the scoop of the century,” fired back President Trump. He later added that “If you could find out, you would have the greatest scoop of all time.”

A day before President Trump made that statement, I had already written that the United States had made a decision to go to war.

Going one step ahead, I had mentioned that the US would start bombing Iran either on Friday, Saturday or Sunday.

I equally shared my assessment with a range of diplomats representing Gulf countries, Turkiye, China, Russia, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, Iran and the United States of America.

“President Trump has not made a decision yet,” was a quick reply by a diplomat. In the same breath, he added that, “When there are negotiations, there is always a ray of hope.”

I don’t want to name the diplomat for honouring privacy, as he was not authorised to speak on this sensitive issue.

As I explained the reason, mentioned in my article, that why bombing on the weekend suits the United States, the diplomat quickly changed the topic by saying, “You have good ideas.”

On Saturday morning, I was woken up by my son screaming: “Papa, [the] US has started bombing Iran. How good was your prediction!”

Well, it was not a prediction. It was simply an assessment of President Trump’s statements.

In the run up to the war, while military assets were being deployed to the region, Donald Trump was giving confusing statements. Yet, he dropped a clear hint on February 19.

“Maybe we’re going to make a deal. You’re going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.”

The 20th day fell on February 28, the day when Washington and Tel Aviv started aggression against Tehran. It was early Saturday. A day when President Trump had enough time to manage the stock market by falsely claiming an instant victory.

And that’s what he is trying to do by making big claims that the war will end in a month. If he is to believe, the leadership has been eliminated, and the war has already been won.

However, for the world, it remains dreadful to see how innocent civilians are being bombed for standing up against their own elected government.

In 2015 too, I had felt the pain of making another brutal assessment come true. Then, after a brief visit to some European capitals, I wrote a piece in the Daily Jang.

By witnessing a shocking level of extremism in Belgium and France, I had summed up that these countries should prepare themselves for a major terrorist activity.

In a couple of months, the world witnessed the Bataclan theatre siege and an attack on Stade de France. The incident resulted in the deaths of 137 people.

It devastated me to the extent that I stopped writing for months. Thanks to the encouragement of some friends and diplomats, I eventually picked up the pen again.

In 2016, it was a pleasant surprise.

Before being assigned to head US Presidential election coverage in Washington, I was asked by my senior, who would win?

“President Trump would easily beat Hillary Clinton,” I replied to the Managing Director in our vibrant newsroom. And then explained the reasons.

In 2019, a day before the United Kingdom went to the polls, I was asked a similar question by the same Director. “Boris Johnson will beat Jeremy Corbyn,” was my instant answer.

It was not a reply anyone in our London conference room had expected. After all, polls had shown that the Labour party leader was far more popular than his Conservative rival.

Yet, I had my own assessment of the situation, which proved right.

Let me admit that during the last three decades, I once fell flat. And that was during the 2024 US Presidential elections transmission.

Till election eve, I was convinced that Donald Trump would easily beat Kamala Harris. And I had shared my assessment with a number of dignitaries, including Sindh Governor Kamran Tessori.

However, as the results started pouring in, I got a message by my very trusted source in America. That person was sitting with one of the top leaders of the Democratic Party and getting live results.

He shared his tally and gave his views that “some important swing states were being won by the Democrats” and based on that, “the victory of Kamala Harris was imminent”.

I shared that news instantly but mentioned that only one source was claiming Kamala Harris winning.

In a few minutes, Donald Trump turned the tables and won the presidency. Next, Kamala Harris made her concession speech.

Unlike the Pakistani opposition, the Democrats didn’t make a hue and cry. They didn’t allege that the 47th President of the United States of America was a so-called product of the Form 47.

While heading home, I received the first call by Governor Tessori telling: “I know your assessment was right but the news based on your source proved wrong.”