$1.2bn IMF tranche approval likely in May after Pakistan meets majority benchmarks

• FBR’s tax collection target for end of Dec 2025 not materialised.
• Income tax revenues collected from retailers not provided to IMF.
• Total spending on health, education at Rs1,360bn by Dec 2025.

Pakistan has achieved 14 of the 17 quantitative performance and indicative benchmarks set under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme for end-December 2025, The News reported on Friday.

The Federal Board of Revenue's (FBR) tax collection target for the end of December 2025 could not be materialised, while for two other indicative targets, the relevant data was not available.

The income tax revenues collected from the retailers could not be provided to the IMF, as the FBR had agreed with the IMF for the collection of a hefty amount from retailers in the current fiscal year.

The IMF staff has apprised the Washington-based lender’s Executive Board and shared a detailed report on the basis of which the Executive Board is likely to consider approval of the fourth tranche worth $1.2 billion in May 2026.

The total accumulated spending on health and education stood at Rs1,360 billion by the end of December 2025, in line with the envisaged target of the IMF.

Top official sources confirmed to The News on Thursday that Pakistan and the IMF had struck a staff-level agreement under $7 billion EFF in which the Fund staff prepared its appraisal on seven quantitative performance criteria for end of December 2025 and found that the net international reserves of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) were adjusted from negative $5.6 billion to negative $6.99 billion for end of December 2025, which was successfully met.

The ceiling on the general government primary budget deficit stood at Rs4.1 trillion for the end of December 2025, which was met. The cash transfers of the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) stood at Rs326 billion, so this quantitative target was also materialised.

The IMF envisaged a target of 500,000 new return filers, and the IMF apprised in its report that the data was not available for the end of December 2025. Total government guarantees stood at Rs4,542 billion, and this target was also achieved successfully.

The ceiling of SBP’s net domestic assets stood at Rs15,016 billion, which was also materialised. The ceiling of SBP stock on net foreign currency swap and forward position stood at negative $1.86 billion for the end of December 2025, in line with the envisaged target agreed with the IMF. The primary balance of the provincial government was envisaged at Rs1,227 billion.

The SBP’s credit to the government remained zero, and external public payment arrears by the general government were successfully materialised.

The FBR failed to materialise the net revenue collection of Rs6,161 billion till the end of December 2025. But the consolidated net tax revenues collected by the provincial revenue authorities of Rs568 billion were achieved successfully. The ceiling on accumulation of tax refunds arrears and power sector repayment arrears related targets were materialised as agreed with the IMF for the end of December 2025.