Bilawal’s dream and chances

PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari took the right decision by declaring his intention to contest from his mother's seat NA-207, Larkhana, presently occupied by Faryal Talpur who might go to the Senate. 

In politics things can change overnight particularly when someone like former president Asif Ali Zardari is around and managing things, but even he would not be happy with Bilawal making premature rather immature statements.

Has Bilawal studied and analyzed the situation on ground. PPP is confined to Sindh, PML-N fully controls Punjab, PTI has not yet lost its grip of Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa and also has made inroads in Punjab while Balochistan remains divided.

Zardari surprised many in 2008 elections, when PPP not only got its President, Prime Minister elected but also Speaker, Deputy Speaker and Chairman, Senate and that too with simple majority. If Bilawal has this in mind, his party at least needs to win some seats in Punjab and KP and improve its position in Sindh 

This situation by and large remains unchanged unless something dramatic happens in wake of 'Panama papers' case against PM Sharif.  Even a political genius like Mr Zardari had miscalculated the outcome of 2013 elections and practically surrendered space, particularly in Punjab, to the rising political force led by Imran Khan, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. 

PTI's own electoral performance in the last three years had been poor particularly in Punjab, where they had not only lost the by-elections, but also in the local bodies and cantonment boards polls.

Imran's only hope to fight back hinges on the possible outcome of 'Panama papers' case in the Supreme Court. Imran wants an early verdict in his favour which, if comes, will lift the chances of PTI in the next elections.

If the SC constitutes a commission, it would be disappointing for Imran and PTI merely because it would at least take 90-days, if not more, meaning March 2017 while they want early disqualification of Sharif. If the right to appeal is also there, it will take more time. 

What if the verdict goes against PTI, something which even PPP doesn't want as they want a split mandate in 2018 elections. 

Like the past Zardari intends to play the number game, and he may have already calculated his party's position in Sindh and possible allies. He intends to improve his position in Sindh while trying to win a few seats in Southern Punjab in particularly. In case of PTI's victory in Panama case, its graph would go up and the party could cause major upset in Punjab. This scenario may pave way for PML-N and PPP alliance as Imran would never go for any seat adjustment with any party if he wins the case. 

Only a Divided House provides window of opportunity to Bilawal and PPP. Perhaps, this possible scenario may not be in the mind of Bilawal, when he made this announcement, but once he actually starts the Punjab tour, and goes to the grassroots only then he will be in a better position to assess where his party stands in Punjab. 

While he has given his own ambitious plan, nothing concrete came out from the weeklong 'Foundation Day' convention of all the four provinces. When I last met Bilawal, just before Azad Kashmir's election, he was as confident as he is today, of PPP victory in 2018, and his desire to become the PM. He was surprised when I told him that the PPP should consider itself lucky it is wins four or five seats. 

Therefore, if elections are held in 2017 against the backdrop of a Panama case verdict in Imran’s favour, he could be in a much better position than any other politician for the prime post. But any setback in the SC would also waste his and PTI's chances in the elections, something which must be in Zardari’s mind. 

The idea of making PPP a liberal and secular party was criticised by the right wing. The PPP is a liberal party in all its manifestations and won elections four times. It lost elections as well as political direction when it dumped its principled politics based on 'Roti, Kapra aur Makan', failed in implementing its own programme and more importantly in setting good examples of governance. 

Mr Zardari will resume his political activities once he arrives in Pakistan, before the death anniversary of Benazir Bhutto on December 27th in which he may also announce Bilawal's candidature for the by-election and could also back his son's plan to lead the party to victory in 2018 making his way to become the PM. 

Those who know Zardari believe that he is a shrewd politician who knows the dynamics of Pakistani politics more than many of his contemporaries. He knows it is difficult but he is returning with a plan in his mind on which he has been working during all these months in 'self exile' though he said ' I am not in exile.'

Zardari has given PML-N and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif five years to rule the country while congratulating Mian shaib on his party's victory in 2013, elections. " Mian sahib, we will now do politics as you complete your term,' he said.

This statement did not go down well within the PPP which faced charge of being friendly opposition as they were of the view that party should have been as aggressive as PML-N had been during the PPP's tenure from 2008 to 2013. Nawaz practically hijacked the lawyer's movement after PPP government delayed the restoration of deposed judges and led to the long march. 

Most political pundits have ruled out the possibility of PPP's revival in Punjab, at least in the next elections in the presence of PML-N and PTI, and term Bilawal's statement as 'dream.' Can his dream come true? Lets all wait.

—The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang. Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO