Asia Cup 2025: Pakistan's qualification scenario after India defeat

Pakistan remain in contention for the Asia Cup 2025 final, but their path is uncertain and could depend heavily on net run rate (NRR).

Even two wins from their remaining fixtures may not be enough, while in some scenarios a single victory could suffice.

If India sweep all three Super Four matches, and Pakistan defeat Bangladesh but lose to Sri Lanka, then India advance with three wins and the other teams finish level on one each — leaving NRR to decide the second finalist.

Another possibility sees Pakistan beating both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, India defeating Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh upsetting India. In that case, three teams would end with two wins apiece, again pushing qualification to NRR.

If both Pakistan and India were to win all of their remaining fixtures, they would make it to the final to be played on September 26. In this case, India would have three wins, Pakistan two, Bangladesh one and Sri Lanka none, providing the most straightforward path to the final.

Pakistan’s challenge is made more difficult by the defeat against India. In the Super Four clash in Dubai on Sunday, Pakistan posted 171–5 but fell as India chased the target in 18.5 overs.

Abhishek Sharma’s 74 off 39 and Shubman Gill’s 47 off 28 set up India’s six-wicket win, strengthening their NRR advantage.

In the other Super Four match, Bangladesh defeated Sri Lanka in a close contest.

Chasing 169, Bangladesh secured victory by four wickets with one ball to spare, thanks to half-centuries from Saif Hassan (61) and Towhid Hridoy (58). Mustafizur Rahman led their bowling effort with 3-20, while Sri Lanka’s Dasun Shanaka fought back with an unbeaten 64 off 37.

The result has opened up qualification pathways and ensured NRR will likely prove crucial.

Remaining fixtures

September 23: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Abu Dhabi)

September 24: India vs Bangladesh (Dubai)

September 25: Pakistan vs Bangladesh (Dubai)

September 26: India vs Sri Lanka (Dubai)