Climate change may impact nearly every 2026 Fifa World Cup game, finds study

KARACHI: Climate change is increasing the likelihood of heat conditions that can negatively affect player performance during almost every match of the 2026 Fifa World Cup, according to a new analysis by Climate Central.

The study found that 97 of the tournament's 104 scheduled matches across the United States, Mexico and Canada are now more likely to experience temperatures above 28°C (82.4°F), a threshold linked by previous scientific research to reduced athletic performance in football.

Researchers warn that such temperatures can reduce sprint frequency, lower the total distance covered by players, slow recovery times and alter match tempo, potentially affecting tactics, entertainment value and player welfare.

The 2026 World Cup, which kicks off on June 11 and features a record 48 teams competing across 16 host cities, could provide one of the clearest examples yet of how climate change is beginning to influence elite sport.

Using historical weather data and climate attribution techniques, Climate Central compared the probability of temperatures exceeding 28°C in today's climate with a hypothetical world unaffected by human-caused climate change.

The analysis found that nearly half of all World Cup matches carry at least a 50% chance of experiencing performance-impairing heat, while in 26 matches climate change has increased that likelihood by at least 10 percentage points. Across the entire tournament schedule, climate change increased the probability of performance-impairing heat by an average of nearly eight percentage points.

Data released alongside the report indicates that some of the highest risks are concentrated in Mexico and parts of the US. According to the analysis, the group-stage match between Uruguay and Spain in Guadalajara faces the largest climate-related increase in risk. Researchers estimate there is a 69.7% chance of temperatures exceeding the 28°C threshold during the match. Without climate change, that probability would have been only 32.4%, meaning global warming has increased the risk by 37.3 percentage points.

Several other matches in Guadalajara are also expected to be heavily affected. Three fixtures scheduled on June 11, June 18 and June 23 each carry an 88.2% chance of performance-impairing heat, with climate change increasing the odds by more than 20 percentage points. In Miami, matches scheduled for June 15 and June 21 each face an 88% probability of such conditions, almost 20 percentage points higher than would be expected in a climate unaffected by human emissions.

The study also found that whichever teams reach the World Cup final on July 19 in New Jersey will face a 46.6% likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Climate change has increased those odds by 16.6 percentage points.

Experts involved in the report say hotter conditions could fundamentally alter how football is played.

Mike Tipton, from the Extreme Environments Laboratory at the University of Portsmouth, said temperatures above 28°C can affect tactics, tempo and overall match quality.

He noted that players tend to reduce intensity and sprinting efforts in hotter conditions, potentially resulting in fewer scoring opportunities, while the risks of heat exhaustion and heat stroke also increase as temperatures rise.

Morten Thorsby, who is expected to represent Norway at the tournament, said the findings demonstrate that rising temperatures are affecting not only player safety but also the quality of the game itself. He argued that heat-related reductions in sprinting, recovery and overall intensity are changing football in ways that are detrimental to both players and spectators.

Former Jamaican Premier League player Alex Jacobs said extreme heat driven by climate change could become a decisive factor at the world's biggest football tournament, while meteorologist Shel Winkley of Climate Central warned that heatwaves and changing weather patterns are increasingly reshaping the sporting landscape.

The report comes as football authorities face growing pressure to address the effects of climate change on the game. Climate Central noted that tournament organisers have already scheduled more evening kick-offs in hotter host cities and will implement mandatory hydration breaks during all 104 matches. Games may also be delayed or suspended if the wet-bulb globe temperature, a measure that combines heat and humidity, reaches 32°C.

Despite these precautions, concerns remain because the majority of World Cup venues are open-air stadiums. Only the stadiums in Atlanta, Dallas and Houston are fully climate-controlled, leaving players, officials and millions of fans exposed to summer heat.

Researchers say the findings highlight a broader challenge facing global sport as temperatures continue to rise. Beyond affecting player performance and match quality, extreme heat is increasingly forcing organisers to rethink scheduling, infrastructure and safety measures. For football, the 2026 World Cup may offer a glimpse into how the sport will need to adapt in an increasingly warming world.