What next for MQM?

The power struggle in the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) has deepened as old friends become hostile rivals. This struggle can even take an 'ugly turn' in the coming months as both factions, in Pakistan and in London, are not ready to surrender the ownership of the MQM, which will play a key role in the next general elections.

Following the policy of 'tit for tat', both factions have left their supporters worried, disappointed, and disillusioned. "Are we going to see another deadly fight, the one which even continues today between MQM and MQM-Haqiqi, killing hundreds of workers on both sides,' asked one of the MQM elders. 

As things are getting tense between the two, MQM Pakistan and Dr Farooq Sattar have become even more unacceptable to London than Pak Sarzameen Party, as Mustafa Kamal had formed a new party while Sattar and his team sacked the pre-August 22 high command.

Things may not be easy for either of the factions as not only their other political opponents but also the establishment would be watching and monitoring this internal conflict closely. As far as MQM's alleged militants are concerned, it may further speed up in the coming weeks. Already over 4,000 of their workers accused in cases of target killings and extortion are facing cases.

As this fight is likely to intensify, MQM Pakistan will face a tough challenge in the by-elections on one of its National Assembly seats vacated as a result of the resignation of Asif Hasnain, who had joined Pak Sarzameen Party.

MQM Pakistan would be fighting against all odds: MQM-Haqiqi, PSP, and MQM-London in particular. Though, PSP and London would not be participating but in the present scenario could approach voters through underground means against Farooq Sattar's nominee.

In his latest move on Sunday, MQM London convener Nadeem Nusrat ended Dr Farooq Sattar's basic membership from the party, 24 hours after MQM Pakistan nominated Sattar as the new convener, Aamir Khan as the Senior Deputy Convener, and named Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui and senior members like Ms Kishawar Zehra, Ms Nasreen Jalil, and Faisal Sabzwari in the Rabita Committee.

Two important names missing from the list were that of Saleem Shahzad, who although is in London but extended support to MQM Pakistan, and that of Ms Zareen Majeed, a founding member who is said to be in Canada.  

On the other hand, Nadeem Nusrat also made in what he has termed as a 'last chance' for MQM MNAs, MPAs, and senators to resign and send written apologies to London. The message came after Altaf Hussain's "audio message", the authenticity of which has been questioned by a former MQM MPA.

So, it would be interesting to see as how many legislators would respond to the second appeal in 10 days and what action MQM London would take against them. They may suspend members of all those who stood with Farooq Sattar and could even sack them.

The difficulties which MQM London would be facing are in the formation of a new set-up and even if they did what will its future be, particularly in the elections. MQM Pakistan is registered with the Election Commission of Pakistan which recognises Dr Farooq Sattar and not Nadeem Nusrat.

Secondly, in the post-August 22 scenario MQM London would also find it extremely difficult to organise any on-ground setup as even those who have approached London are not ready to come on the surface.

Nadeem Nusrat and his team would be disappointed if they fail in getting resignations of 30 to 40 per cent legislators. Another setback which London received was yet another resolution against Altaf Hussain, moved by the MQM, in the inaugural session of the KMC. Jailed Mayor Waseem Akhtar, despite a favorable statement from London for his release, decided to stand with Sattar.

MQM London at present is trying to reach the sectors and units with a message to get ready for the line of action.

However, despite the disputed 'audio message' of Altaf Hussain, the most significant development is his mysterious silence. He has not only stopped making speeches in Pakistan but also abroad after two of his speeches in America and South Africa caused him a lot of trouble.

The MQM Pakistan leadership knows the challenges ahead and now comes with an experienced team and, in case ailing Saleem Shahzad also joins its ranks followed by Haider Abbas Rizvi, they would at least have a presentable team.

MQM Senior Deputy Convener Aamir Khan has the reputation of an effective organiser and when he had returned to the party after breaking ties with Afaq Ahmad, there was a lot of opposition from the former MQM leader Anis Qaimkhani group.

Aamir Khan has got the task of looking after sectors and units, key to the party's organisation, beside other party wings.

Fear still persists within MQM Pakistan over the possible reaction or action from London if it fails to get 10-20 resignations.

But London will be announcing a new interim setup in Pakistan in the next few weeks, depending on the developments and the ground situation. Some Altaf followers even hinted towards 'guerrilla warfare'. Now, whether they have expressed their personal opinion or some serious work is going on, no one knows.

What Farooq Sattar has so far succeeded in maintaining is his cool and calm. He will be seeking cooperation from Islamabad in order to get some relief for those workers who are not involved in any heinous crimes.

MQM Pakistan is deeply concerned about not getting any relief for Mayor Waseem Akhtar whose work is now being looked after by Acting Mayor Arshad Vohra.

While MQM Pakistan got moral and political support from Interior Minister Ch. Nisar Ali Khan and others in the federal government, it has not even succeeded in resuming formal talks with Chief Minister Sindh Syed Murad Ali Shah, which were suspended after August 22 anti-Pakistan speech of Altaf Hussain.

If Dr Sattar and his team fails in getting any relief, either from Sindh or the Center or even from the establishment, at least those workers in jail may look for other options: PSP or the extreme option of MQM London.

He will also be getting bad news in the next few days from Rangers, which may further increase pressure on him.

For London, activities openly in support of Altaf would be highly risky. Now, will any of the London leaders, other than Altaf Hussain, take the risk of coming to Pakistan for re-organisation? It looks very difficult without their presence in Pakistan.

As it stands today, Dr Sattar has succeeded in keeping the situation under control and kept the organisation intact, but with lots of 'ifs and buts' as he is facing enormous pressure.

At the same time, Nadeem Nusrat and the London faction would be more frustrated if it gets little or no response on his appeal after Altaf's video also got little response.

Depending on the national political scene, we may see some more developments, both in London and in Pakistan, in the power struggle in a party which was once known for its organisation and discipline.

This situation has also opened a space for other parties as well, but they too are waiting for the final show-down.

 

—The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.