Science ministry says herd immunity can be very dangerous to combat coronavirus in Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: Science and Technology Minister Fawad Chaudhry said Monday the "herd immunity" concept could lead to disastrous outcomes in a country like Pakistan where the health system is not well-equipped to battle out the surging cases of the novel coronavirus.

"The expert committee of the Ministry of Science and Technology has given its opinion on three basic issues", including the strategy of herd immunity, Chaudhry said on Twitter.

"The high pressure [or peak] of the coronavirus in Pakistan will come to light by mid-June. Considering the concept of herd immunity [as a strategy] can be very dangerous and such a plan of action should not be adopted at any cost.

"Coronavirus is not a cold," the minister stressed.

In another tweet, he said the pandemic was was a complex problem and that everyone could give an opinion on it.

"I think Prime Minister [Imran Khan's] smart lockdown policy is the only solution to the problem. If the lockdown is lifted without precaution, there can be a lot of damage," he warned.

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There has been some debate of late on the concept of "herd immunity” and whether it was the right path to choose to combat the deadly coronavirus.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had first floated the idea to tackle the pandemic by suggesting that it would control the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel virus. However, the UK health secretary later said it was ever considered by the government.

What is herd immunity?

In group or herd immunity, a population is protected from an infectious disease when it becomes immune from the virus either through vaccination or by developing antibodies. The term is used to calculate the number people who would need to be vaccinated.

Also read: Explainer: What is herd immunity and will it work in Pakistan?

When more and more people become immune to the infection, they act as buffers between those who could spread the virus and those who are most vulnerable, such as the elderly, children, pregnant women or the people with weak immune systems.

Eventually, the spread of the virus slows down and the chain of infection is broken. The technique was used to eradicate small pox in the past.

Will it work in Pakistan?

Since there is still no vaccine for COVID-19, "herd immunity" could be dangerous gamble, experts say.

Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, an epidemiologist working on chronic diseases in Sydney, Australia, recently wrote in Science Alert that 70% of the entire population would have to be immune from COVID-19 to stop it from spreading.

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He added that if coronavirus fatality rate is 0.5-1% and if "70% of an entire population gets sick, that means that between 0.35-0.7% of everyone in a country could die, which is a catastrophic outcome”.

"Also 10% of all infections will need to be hospitalised,” he said, which means more pressure on the country’s healthcare system.