Everything points towards another deadly summer for Karachi

By M Waqar Bhatti

KARACHI: With the Mercury touching 36.6 degrees Celcius on Saturday, February 27, there is no doubt that 2016 will definitely be as warm as last year. With Ramzan again falling in the peak summer month of June, there are great chances that the people of Karachi might witness the same bedlam they did last year.

This ominous warning was issued by the director of Pakistan Meteorological Department in Karachi, Abdur Rashid, in a conversation with The News.

“The high mercury level on February 27 indicates how the weather is expected to stay for the rest of the year,” he said. “This was the first time in 10 years that the temperature was this high in February. The last time mercury touched 36 degrees Celsius in the second month of the year was on 25 February, 1996, when the temperature was recorded to be 36.1 degrees Celsius.”

Conservative estimates stated that 1,500, but there were independent reports of as many as 3,000 people dying in Karachi during a spate of deadly heatwaves in June last year when a low-pressure area in the Arabian Sea stopped the flow of Karachi’s signature sea breeze towards the city. Combined with the power and water shortages and lack of adequate health facilities, a large number of the elderly, homeless, already sick and people who performed hard labour perished on account of unbearable heat.

Rashid warned that another deadly heatwave was likely to follow this year too since the weather and environmental conditions had not changed at all. “We still have power and water shortages and no extraordinary plantation has been carried out in the city since last year,” he said.

As the city grows unabated and environmental conditions keep deteriorating, the weather indicators that used to be a good omen for Karachi have now turned hostile.

Rashid explained that previously low pressure in the Arabian Sea used to be a good omen for Karachi since it indicated a possible downpour. However, he said, from now on the met department with weather and environmental experts will have to watch out for such low pressure areas or low depressions in the ocean since it meant cutting off the sea breeze flowing towards the city and resulting in critical increase in temperature.

What is a heatwave?

A heatwave occurs when the average daily maximum temperature exceeds by more than 5 degrees Celsius for more than five consecutive days, explained Rashid.

“A heatwave occurs when an unusual spell of hot and humid or hot and dry conditions prevail from three to five days during summer season,” he said. In Karachi, the formation of a low-pressure area in Arabian Sea cut off the sea breeze to the city in June 2015. The air became warmer and the heat was exacerbated under a phenomenon called the “Urban Heat Island Effect”, said Dr Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, the former director general of the Pakistan Meteorological Department who is now serving as a special adviser to the United Nations World Meteorological Organisation’s secretary general for Asia.

“The Urban Heat Island Effect is a phenomenon in which the concentration of structures and waste heat  from human activity results in a slightly warmer envelope of air over urbanized areas as compared to the surrounding rural areas. The island effect is not uniform in the whole city but occurs in pockets, with greater impact on less green spaces, infrastructure and of low-socioeconomic status.” This was witnessed last year in Karachi when most of the deaths reported were of residents of industrial areas of the city and those of lower and lower-middle and socio-economic status.  

Emergency

In case of an impending heatwave in the city, emergency should be declared by the city administration by alerting all hospitals, disaster management authorities and local health departments while holiday should be declared for schools.

“People should avoid going in the sun at all costs. Use a piece of wet cloth to cover your head if it is necessary to go outside in the day time and drink plenty of water of avoid dehydration,” director met office Karachi advised.

“Body temperatures should be maintained by taking cold baths, staying in ventilated rooms and drinking plenty of water or ORS to maintain electrolyte levels.”

 20m trees required

At least 20 million trees need to be planted in and around the city to mitigate the effects of climate change and the Urban Heat Island Effect that is causing the deadly heatwaves, said Rashid. “This can only be achieved when every citizen plants a tree and nurtures it to maturity.”

He also suggested setting up green rooftops in highly commercial areas saying more plantation will help bring the temperatures down a bit.

-- Originally published in The News