December 23, 2025
White Christmas adds up to the fun of an already cherished holiday worldwide. However, the dream of White Christmas will only become a reality for residents of a limited number of states,
As defined by meteorologists, a White Christmas occurs when there’s at least one inch of snow on the ground on the morning of 25th of December.
It is actually the snow that counts, not necessarily the snowfall on the day itself.
The best chances for a festive White Christmas are confined to the country’s northern tier and higher elevations:
The Upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes: Northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and North Dakota have the highest probability due to existing snowpack that may withstand warming temperatures.
Northern New England and the Adirondacks: Areas such as northern Maine and New York’s Adirondack Mountains which are receiving fresh snow early this week, are poised to hold onto it through Christmas morning.
The Mountain West: The Rockies, Sierra Nevada, and Cascades are reliable bets for snow on the ground particularly at higher ski resorts.
Due to a strong ridge of high pressure, temperature will be increased in vast portions of the central and southern U.S., effectively erasing chances for White Christmas.
This includes:
In the past, cities such as Minneapolis-St Paul had a 74% chance of a White Christmas. This year, it remains a strong contender. However, odds drop majorly for cities such as Chicago (34%), Detroit (35%), and New York CIty (13%). Most importantly, this year’s warm pattern makes it even less likely.
For Christmas eve, forecasts suggest possibly light snow showers only in far northern New England, meaning his sleigh is likely to encounter clear, warming skies across most of the Lower 48.