US-Israel War on Iran unleashes climate catastrophe, emitting 5 million tonnes of CO2 in just two weeks

As the war between Iran and the US-Israel rages across the region, a catastrophic environmental toll is emerging that threatens to undermine global climate goals.

Amid the war, a new analysis reveals that the first 14 days of the US-Israel war on Iran released around 5.1 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide, which is more than the annual emissions of Iceland.

The figure is also roughly equivalent to the combined yearly output of the world’s 84 lowest-emitting nations.

The researchers of Climate and Community Institute conducted the analysis in association with researchers from Lancaster University and the University of Energy and Natural Resources in Ghana.

The analysis marks the first comprehensive accounting of the conflict’s climate cost.

The staggering figure is also confirmed by the satellite data from Bloomberg Green and investigative consultancy Data Desk, which reports the significant spike in flaring and methane releases from oil and gas infrastructure across the region.

Building destruction: The hidden carbon bomb

In contrast to the common perspective, the major contributor of wartime emissions is not burning oil fields or military aircraft, but the destruction of civilian infrastructure.

As reported by the Iranian Red Crescent Society, around 2,000 civilian buildings, including 16,191 residential units, 3,384 commercial properties, 77 medical centres, and 69 schools, have been destroyed or faced major damage.

This combined destruction accounts for 2.4 million tonnes of CO2, researchers calculated.

Oil infrastructure attacks: Black rain and burning skies

The most visually notable effect has been the targeting of fossil fuel activities. Four large fuel storage depots around Tehran were bombed by the Israeli forces. This resulted in millions of litres of fuel ignition, which formed dark clouds and toxic black rain over the capital.

Other comparable strikes in Iran and retaliatory Iranian attacks on Gulf countries have cost between 2.5 and 5.9 million barrels of oil in fires, with 1.9 million tonnes of CO2e. The Bloomberg Green satellite analysis reveals that flaring of key facilities has dramatically increased. 

Das Island liquefied natural gas plant in the UAE released approximately 74,100 tonnes of CO2e into the atmosphere between February 28 and March 22, while the Qatar Ras Laffan plant, the largest LNG export hub in the world, released approximately 101,300 tonnes.

Military operations: Fuel, weapons, and hardware

The direct emissions produced by military operations have been quite substantial due to the sheer scale of military operations. U.S. heavy bombers have flown missions from as far away as the west of England, while fighter jets, drones, reconnaissance aircraft, cargo planes, refuelling tankers, and naval vessels have consumed an estimated 150 to 270 million litres of fuel in the first two weeks alone, producing 529,000 tonnes of CO2e.

To put this in perspective, a single Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II fighter jet burns about 5,600 to 6,500 litres of kerosene during a 1.5-2 hour combat sortie, which is equivalent to 14-17 tonnes of CO2, which is approximately equal to the lifetime emissions of an average passenger automobile. In 2024, Lockheed Martin stated that its products released almost 14 million tonnes of CO2e when in use.

The war has also devastated major war equipment. The U.S. lost four planes, while Iran lost 28 aircraft, 21 water vessels, and about 300 missile launchers. The total carbon embodied in making substitutes to this equipment is estimated at 172,000 tonnes of CO2e.

Munitions themselves contributed an additional 55,000 tonnes, according to claims that U.S. and Israeli forces hit over 6,000 targets and Iran fired about 1,000 missiles and 2,000 drones, with about 1,900 interceptors fired in self-defence.

Global carbon budget under siege

The two-week emissions during the conflict are a huge drain on the remaining carbon repositories of the world. By June 2025, the climate scientists estimated that humanity could emit greenhouse gases equivalent to 130 billion tonnes of CO2 to maintain 50% probability of curbing warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The annual budget would be depleted by 2028 at the present rate of 40 billion tonnes per year in the world.

Professionals note that the short-term emissions of war activities are a tip of the iceberg regarding the eventual climate impact of the conflict. The reconstruction of the destroyed infrastructure, cities, and buildings will produce emissions for years or decades to come.

The long-term carbon cost could dwarf the war’s initial footprint as reflected in the patterns of Ukraine, where rebuilding is set to be a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions.

Apart from climate implications, the environmental impacts within the region are already having a devastating effect on the local population. The strikes on the fuel depots in Tehran have caused toxic rain, which could have health implications, including cancer risks, for decades. This is also being reported in other Gulf states, which have also come under retaliatory strikes.