Who is winning Iran war? China

The ongoing war in Iran has ignited a crisis in the global energy market, but as Western nations scramble to secure fossil fuel supplies, one country is emerging as an unexpected victor: China.

While the conflict drove volatility in oil and gas prices, it has also acted as a driving force for the global shift to renewable energy. In that changing dynamics, China’s dominance over the supply chains for solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and, most notably, electric vehicles (EVs) has left it uniquely positioned to benefit.

As reported by Statista, it is expected that the revenue generated in China's electric vehicle market will hit an astonishing figure of US$533.4 billion in 2026. This prediction shows a bright future for the market.

In addition, the market is expected to grow steadily at a CAGR of -1.68% from 2026 to 2030, thus registering a market value of US$498.4 billion in 2030. The rising demand for electric vehicles will drive the growth of the market. In terms of unit sales, it is predicted that the volume of the electric vehicle market sold in China will rise significantly to 17.46 million vehicle units in 2030.

The exports were already skyrocketing in the first two months of 2026. But with the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the Chinese green tech sales got a massive boost.

Cory Combs of Trivium China told CNBC, “The Iran war is a complete validation of China’s approach to energy security.”

He claimed that China is now “far more energy secure than any other major economy” due to its self-sufficiency long before the current crisis.

The gross domestic product (GDP) of China in 2024 was 18.7 trillion U.S. dollars. Comparing the GDP of China with that of the other three BRIC economies - India, Russia, and Brazil, China was number one in 2024 and ranked second in the GDP ranking of the whole world.

The lack of growth in China's GDP expressed in U.S. dollars in 2022 and 2023 was primarily related to the strength of the U.S. dollar. The real GDP growth rate of China in 2023 was 5.4%, while in 2024 it was 5%.

While China aims to achieve a 4.5% to 5% growth rate in its GDP in 2026, the economy of the United States is forecasted to grow at approximately 2.2% to 2.4%.

The New York Times reported that China’s ruling Communist Party has long viewed industrial dominance as the bedrock of national security.

The same plan even got expanded and sharpened during President Trump’s first term as China doubled down on policies aiming to strengthen local industries and minimise vulnerability to foreign pressure.

One of the significant pillars of China’s strategy was energy. Once, China was the world’s biggest market for internal combustion cars, and now it stands at the top of the EV market.

In January 2026, China’s BYD surpassed Elon Musk’s Tesla to become the world’s biggest seller of EVs. The sales of Tesla dropped by 9% (1.64 million) in 2025 worldwide. On the other hand, BYD’s sales rose by almost 28% (2.25 million) in 2025.

Criticism is voiced in regard to the dependence of Chinese energy security on coal as the dirtiest source of power available. Nevertheless, experts state that precisely because of this dependence on coal, China managed to position itself as a global leader in clean technologies.

As the tensions in the Middle East escalate and Trump has no clear exit strategy, the shift in global trade is becoming undeniable.

From solar panels mounted atop mountains in Jiangxi province to the export of electric cars through the port of Shanghai, Chinese businesses are stepping up to fill the gap caused by unstable oil markets.

For the international community, the challenge becomes one of striking a balance between slowing down the shift towards green power and staying at risk from oil market instability, or speeding up the process and putting itself further under China’s influence. For China, the surprise of its timing aside, either path means victory.